SoFi Expects to Earn 48% More in 2027. Is the Stock a Buy?

To say that SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) hasn't been one of the better-performing stocks in 2026 would be a major understatement. Although its business continues to set records for revenue, members, and other key metrics, the stock was down by 40% in 2026 heading into its third-quarter earnings.

However, there was a lot to like in the third quarter report, and the stock jumped after the news. Not only did SoFi raise its full-year 2026 guidance, in contrast to its second quarter report, but the fintech company gave its first full-year forecast for 2027, and it's far better than analysts had expected.

Image source: SoFi.

A record third quarter

Let's start with a quick rundown of SoFi's third-quarter earnings. The company's adjusted net revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, and its adjusted EPS came in at $0.18, handily beating analyst estimates. SoFi added 1.2 million members during the quarter, its highest single-quarter addition ever, and the bank's loan originations jumped by 71%.

Another big reason for investors to smile is SoFi's credit quality, which has been a concern amid the rising-rate environment and persistent consumer inflation. In the third quarter, SoFi posted an annualized charge-off rate of 2.26% on its personal loans, down from 2.60% a year ago.

SoFi's 2027 forecast

As mentioned, SoFi raised its full-year 2026 guidance, implying a strong fourth quarter. But the real story is the company's 2027 outlook, which was introduced for the first time.

For 2027, SoFi expects about $6.4 billion in adjusted net revenue, implying 27% year-over-year growth, based on its current 2026 full-year outlook. Management also expects adjusted EPS of $0.90 per share, well above Wall Street's $0.82 estimate.

As mentioned, revenue is expected to grow by about 27%, but the earnings forecast implies about 48% EPS growth, indicating significant margin expansion. Part of the reason is that fee-based revenue is SoFi's fastest-growing revenue stream, up 21% sequentially in the third quarter. This is a capital-light, high-margin way to grow, so it helps fuel profitability improvements.

Is SoFi a bargain now?

At a share price of $16, which is where SoFi stock was trading shortly after the earnings release, SoFi trades for less than 18 times management's 2027 earnings forecast. That's for a company expecting nearly 50% earnings growth, whose tangible book value grew 25% over the past year.

Of course, SoFi isn't without risk. It is still primarily a consumer lender, and personal loans account for about three-fourths of its loan originations. If the economy weakens, its credit quality could be under pressure.

The bottom line is that the market seems happy with the guidance but still doubts SoFi can deliver on its long-term vision, as evidenced by the current valuation relative to its growth. However, management has beaten its own targets all year (and for most quarters before this year), and if the company can actually earn $0.90 per share next year, the stock looks cheap right now. I've added to my position recently, and plan to continue doing so if the current valuation holds.

Matt Frankel, CFP® has positions in SoFi Technologies. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.