Bitcoin faces $77,000 support test as Fed decision nears

• Bitcoin fell 9.3% from its September 21 high of $87,392, with $77,000 to $77,765 standing as its next major support zone.
• The top crypto's futures open interest climbed to 669,253 BTC on October 25 despite falling prices, suggesting leveraged positioning continued during the sell-off.
• Galaxy Research declared the bear market over, citing slower long-term holder selling and Bitcoin's recovery above its 50-week moving average.

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing key support levels after falling to $79,250 over the weekend, with persistent selling pressure and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision likely to prolong the top crypto's decline, according to Bitfinex analysts.

Bitcoin faces $77,000 support as Fed decision approaches

In its Alpha report published Monday, Bitfinex stated that Bitcoin fell 9.3% from its September 21 high of $87,392, marking its deepest correction since the July cycle low.

The top crypto also lost its $81,300 support level, which it held for several weeks. The firm said the level has now turned into resistance, with about 874,000 BTC held between $81,000 and $82,500 potentially creating additional selling pressure during recovery attempts.

Bitfinex identified $77,000 to $77,765 as the next major support zone, based on large investors' cost basis and the True Market Mean.

The exchange said a sustained recovery above $82,500, supported by renewed demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), would indicate the current consolidation phase is ending.

However, risks surrounding the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision remain. Although markets largely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, the probability of a December rate hike has increased, potentially limiting demand for riskier assets.

Bitfinex also warned that Bitcoin’s derivatives positioning had not undergone the typical reset associated with durable market bottoms. Aggregate futures open interest rose to 669,253 BTC on October 25, even as Bitcoin declined, suggesting that traders continued opening positions during the sell-off.

Galaxy Digital argues Bitcoin bear market ended in June

Despite Bitcoin's recent weakness, Galaxy Research argued that BTC's broader bear market has already ended and the top crypto is entering an accumulation phase ahead of its next potential advance.

In a report published on Thursday, Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn noted that easing selling pressure, improving technical indicators and mounting US government debt strengthen the case for buying and holding Bitcoin.

“We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left: these are all reasons we remain bullish on Bitcoin,” Thorn wrote.

Galaxy stated that Bitcoin’s latest bear market was its shallowest on record, with the price falling roughly 53% from its October 2025 peak. Previous bear markets recorded declines ranging from 77% to 93%.

The firm also noted that Bitcoin had closed above its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks through October 18, following 44 weeks below the indicator. The sustained recovery above this level therefore suggests the market has entered a new phase.

Selling by long-term holders has also slowed. Bitcoin held in wallets untouched for at least five years moved an average of 34,000 BTC monthly in 2026, down from 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024.

Galaxy argued that spot ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasury companies absorbed much of the supply these holders distributed.

However, the firm identified a weekly close below $76,540, followed by a failure to reclaim that level within a month, as a potential warning that its bullish outlook may be wrong.

BTC is trading at $80,050, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.