JPMorgan Chase is a diversified financial giant, so it has a high-level view of the economy.
If the company is right, the aging of the Baby Boom generation could be a bigger hit than many expect.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Wall Street about "tectonic" plates that could collide and cause market disruption when the bank released second-quarter earnings. That's a relatively near-term issue for investors to consider, but Dimon has also issued a long-term warning that retirement is "slipping out of reach of too many people." There are two economic hits to consider with this far-reaching warning.
When you ask people how much they will need to retire comfortably, you get a number somewhere around $1.2 million and $1.4 million, on average. The figure varies from year to year, but the lower end of that range is sufficient to highlight the scale of the retirement problem. The average retirement savings for a 56 to 64-year-old is roughly $540,000. The average for a 65 to 74-year-old is roughly $610,000.
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Image source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Average retirement savings are well short of what people believe they need. And the math gets even worse when you look at median figures, where half of the people are above the number and half below. The median retirement savings for 56- to 64-year-olds is roughly $185,000, and for 65- to 74-year-olds, $200,000. That means that the averages are being lifted by a small number of financially successful people, and the real retirement savings story is much worse than it looks.
Jamie Dimon appears to be right with his retirement warning. And it means that the global financial giant he runs, along with many other financial companies (large and small), will increasingly compete to serve a relatively small number of wealthy customers.
As noted, however, JPMorgan Chase has a high-level view of the economic world. The bank has also warned that millions of small businesses lack a plan for when their owners retire. The scale of the problem is shocking. According to Gallup, the future of businesses with just an owner working is up in the air: 27% plan to simply shut down when the owner retires, and another 40% have no idea what will happen when they retire. Small, single-operator businesses like these account for 30 million businesses.
In other words, Main Street could take a big hit as more and more baby boomers retire: all of the businesses that get shut down will no longer be buying or making things. Meanwhile, larger private businesses that have employees are likely to be sold or passed on to family. That could further widen the wealth divide highlighted above. There's no easy solution, and it suggests that the U.S. economy could be in for a bumpy and complicated transition.
JPMorgan Chase is already preparing for this large and uncertain retirement wave, but you should probably start preparing, too.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.