What to Expect From US Stock Markets In the Fourth Week of September
US stocks reopen Monday with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5% and the Dow down more than 1.5% last week. A missile strike on Riyadh adds oil risk on top.
Four events shape the days ahead. Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck the Saudi capital on Saturday. Fed officials speak and growth data lands Wednesday. President Donald Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday.
Why 5% on the 10-Year Sets the Price of Every Share
The bond market is where this week starts. A US government bond now pays 5% a year and carries almost no risk. Every company listed on Wall Street has to beat that.
Yardeni Research founder, Ed Yardeni, has already cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400. He had been one of the most bullish forecasters on the street.
“We are starting to worry now that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may be on the verge of breaking out above 5%,” he said.
He blamed the bond market, the war in Iran and November’s midterm elections.
A second problem hides inside Friday’s numbers. Technology and industrials were the only sectors that rose. Yet higher yields hurt technology hardest, because those profits sit furthest in the future. The sector holding the index up has the most to lose.
This market is getting VERY narrow.10-year yield: 5%+370+ S&P 500 stocks traded lower todayYet tech was the ONLY sector to finish green.The index barely moved, but underneath the surface most stocks were getting sold.That’s a much weaker day than the S&P 500 makes it…
— The Income Wheel (@theincomewheel) September 18, 2026
What Each Event this Week Could Do to Share Prices
Monday brings the oil question. Saudi air defenses destroyed a missile fired at Riyadh, coalition spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki said. Brent crude still closed near $104 on Friday, up more than 13% in a month.
Expensive oil splits the market. Energy producers earn more. Airlines and retailers pay more. It also traps the Fed, which raised rates last week and may have to do it again.
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,” said Kevin Warsh, chair of the US Federal Reserve.
Wednesday brings another test. S&P Global publishes its flash survey of company managers, the first read on whether costly energy is slowing the economy. Weak growth with high inflation is the mix Wall Street fears most.
Thursday brings another tough gamble. Trump meets Xi at the White House. Tariffs, rare earths and artificial intelligence guardrails are on the table, and the trade truce expires on November 10. A deal lifts exporters and chipmakers. No deal puts tariffs back in play before year end.
In New York City, Vice Premier He Lifeng and I are continuing our discussions on the U.S.-China economic and trade relationship ahead of @POTUS’ historic summit with President Xi in Washington. These talks help lay the groundwork for President Trump to advance America’s economic… pic.twitter.com/phmF11Aoxi
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 20, 2026
Company results add to the mix. KB Home reports Tuesday, and mortgage rates track that same 10-year yield. Costco reports Thursday, where one analyst already warns core earnings could miss forecasts.
Traders spent Friday lifting their bets on another Fed rate rise in October. This week decides whether they were right.
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