The S&P 500 Has Hit 27 Record Highs in 2026. Here's What History Says Comes Next

As of this writing, the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high 27 times so far in 2026. The benchmark index has risen by about 13% year-to-date. Because of this, many investors are wondering if the market is ripe for a pullback.

It's certainly understandable to think that a decline is inevitable. But it might surprise you to learn that history suggests that the exact opposite is likely to be the case. In simple terms, record highs in the stock market are a lot more common (and less dangerous) than you might think.

With that in mind, here's what tends to happen after the stock market reaches record highs, backed by decades of real data.

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What happens after a record close?

First, there's no such thing as a "normal" year in the stock market, and nobody has a crystal ball that can tell you what the S&P 500 will do over any time period in the future. It's entirely possible for the S&P 500 to gain 20% over the next year, and it's also possible for it to decline by the same amount. And neither would be a statistically unusual year.

With that in mind, here's what the data tells us. Between January 1988 and December 2023, the S&P 500 gained an average of 11.9% over any random 12-month period. But if you look at a 12-month period immediately following a record close, the S&P 500 gained an average of 13.4%. In other words, it has historically been better to buy after a record close than to buy stocks on the average day.

Here's why. A market making new highs is usually a market where earnings are growing. It's usually a market with sustained upward momentum. As mentioned, every period is different, but a record close can be more of a catalyst for future gains than it might seem.

What should you do?

If you have cash on the sidelines and you're specifically waiting for the market to decline before you put it to work, it could be a smart idea to rethink that strategy. I'm a big fan of buying at regular intervals, regardless of what the market is doing. It takes the emotion out of it.

Of course, there are some serious risk factors in the market right now, such as the conflict in Iran, the 30-year Treasury yield near a multi-decade high, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates. There's no guarantee whatsoever that the market will match its historic post-record performance. But the point is, it doesn't need a correction anytime soon, either.

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