Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Be Worth More than SpaceX Before 2026 is Over

Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX, has seen its valuation fluctuate since going public just over two months ago. Its valuation hit $2.6 trillion just days after going public, but then sold off to a low of $1.4 trillion before rebounding to its current $1.8 trillion level (at the time of this writing). However, I think one stock could be worth more than SpaceX before 2026 is over, and it's currently valued at a lower level than anything SpaceX has traded at during its time on the public markets.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is currently a $1.39 trillion company, but I think it could easily surpass SpaceX before 2026 is over for a handful of reasons, not all of them in its control.

Image source: Getty Images.

Does SpaceX deserve to be bigger than Meta?

The first question investors need to ask is whether SpaceX logically deserves to be bigger than Meta. I think the answer to that question is a resounding "no."

First, let's look at what each company is doing right now. During Q2 2026, Meta Platforms' revenue totaled $60.8 billion, rising 28% year over year. It had rising expenses, which caused net income to shrink 14% year over year, but it still posted an impressive $15.8 billion profit. Those are figures you'd expect from a company valued at over $1 trillion, but it's nowhere near what SpaceX is producing.

From a growth standpoint, SpaceX is beating Meta, with revenue rising 92% year over year. However, its revenue only totaled $7.8 billion, and it produced no net income to speak of. That's right: SpaceX's revenue is less than half of Meta's net income, yet SpaceX has a higher valuation.

That doesn't make a lot of sense logically, even if SpaceX is growing at a rapid pace. Because of these mismatched figures, I wouldn't be surprised to see Meta end 2026 at a higher valuation than SpaceX, and it could occur in two ways.

Meta is cheap while SpaceX is expensive

By the end of 2026, Meta will be bigger than SpaceX through one of two mechanisms. First, Meta Platforms could rise to have a reasonable valuation. Right now, Meta trades for 17.5 times forward earnings. For reference, the S&P 500 trades for 21.4 times forward earnings.

META PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

That's a very low price, indicating that Meta is trading at the cheaper end of its usual valuation range. Some of its valuation woes are due to lackluster performance, but with Meta still growing rapidly and profits only falling due to the acquisition of major (AI) talent, I think this is just too low a price to pay for Meta's stock.

I think trading at a market-average valuation is more reasonable. If Meta could rise to 21.4 times forward earnings, that would represent a 22% rise (at the time of this writing), bringing Meta's market cap to $1.7 trillion, roughly where SpaceX is now.

However, by the end of 2026, I'd expect SpaceX's valuation to come down as well.

The SpaceX market is constantly being flooded with new shares as various lockup periods end. This increases the supply of stock available to trade, which could dilute demand enough that share prices sink. Furthermore, SpaceX is valued at an incredibly high level. Because we don't have 12 months' worth of results from SpaceX, valuing it on trailing results is impossible. If I utilize Wall Street analysts' projections, they estimate SpaceX will generate $44.6 billion in revenue during 2026. At today's current market cap, that prices SpaceX stock at nearly 40 times sales.

That's a very expensive price for any stock, even SpaceX. I think that figure will come down by the end of the year and potentially leave SpaceX as a trillion-dollar company, but only barely.

Meta Platforms is a viable business that generates serious profits, while SpaceX is a company that only has plans to do so. I think this will lead to Meta overtaking SpaceX in valuation by the end of the year, making now a better time to invest.

Keithen Drury has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.