Here's How Much Social Security's Trump Bump-Driven 2027 COLA Is Projected to Boost Benefits

For the overwhelming majority of the more than 71 million traditional Social Security beneficiaries (retired workers, workers with disabilities, and survivors of deceased workers), few announcements are more anticipated than the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) reveal.

Social Security's COLA is best described as an annual raise passed on to recipients to offset the effects of inflation. If, for example, the cost for a broad basket of goods and services regularly purchased by seniors increased by 3% from one year to the next and benefits remained static, recipients' buying power would decline.

This highly anticipated Social Security raise is announced in mid-October by the Social Security Administration and is determined by inflation data from July through September. With one month of critical inflation data already in the books, estimates are narrowing as to how much benefits will increase in 2027.

But this is only part of the story. Next year's raise is subject to a historic Trump bump, driven by two of President Donald Trump's policies.

President Trump delivering remarks. Image source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok.

Social Security's 2027 COLA is getting a significant Trump bump

To preface this discussion, inflation is perfectly normal for an expanding economy. Since the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers became the program's annual inflation measure in 1975, there have only been three years in which deflation (falling prices) resulted in no COLA being passed along to recipients. The aggregate cost for goods and services rising over time is perfectly normal.

However, two of Donald Trump's policies are directly boosting the prevailing inflation rate, and thus Social Security's 2027 COLA forecasts.

To begin with, next year's COLA projections are being influenced by the same variable that gave Social Security's 2026 raise a boost: Trump's tariff and trade policy.

In April 2025, the president introduced sweeping global tariffs and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with unfavorable trade imbalances with America. Even though these tariffs were invalidated by the U.S. Supreme Court in February 2026, adding duties to select imported goods increased consumer prices and provided a modest boost to U.S. inflation and Social Security's 2026 COLA.

65.

As in 65 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target.

The Fed has lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation. pic.twitter.com/WErvde2rue

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 12, 2026

Trump's tariffs remain a source of modest inflationary pressure. Recently, the Trump administration announced a new wave of sweeping global tariffs on more than 80 countries. These duties, which can increase domestic production costs, are likely to be passed on to consumers.

The other policy that's expected to result in a sizable Trump bump in 2027 is the Iran war.

Shortly after President Trump approved military action against Iran on Feb. 28, the latter closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic. This stymied the flow of one-fifth of the world's liquid petroleum. The reaction in energy markets was swift and violent, with gas prices rising at the fastest pace in three decades.

But the Iran war isn't just an energy supply issue any longer. Economic data suggest that Iran-war-driven inflation has reached the broader economy, which should result in sustainably higher inflation and a beefier benefit boost for Social Security recipients in the upcoming year.

Image source: Getty Images.

How much of a Trump bump-driven raise can Social Security beneficiaries expect in 2027?

Understandably, we won't know precisely how much Social Security benefits will increase until the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September inflation report on Oct. 14. But with the first puzzle piece in place, the July inflation report, independent estimates for Social Security's Trump bump-driven 2027 COLA are streaming in.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, adjusted its 2027 COLA projection down a bit to 3.6% following the release of the July inflation report. Meanwhile, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson pared back her Social Security raise forecast to 3.4% from a peak of 4.7% just a few months ago.

Based on the average of these two independent estimates, Social Security's 2027 raise would be 3.5%. This would mark the sixth consecutive year with a payout increase of at least 2.5%, and it would tie for the seventh-largest year-over-year percentage increase since 1992.

BREAKING: 71 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2026. The average annual increase over the last decade: 3.1%.https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/pgqtPLgqMB

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 24, 2025

But it's one thing to analyze percentages and another to look at what this means in nominal-dollar terms.

If the average of these two independent estimates proves accurate, Social Security's 2027 COLA will boost the average monthly retired-worker benefit check by $73 to approximately $2,159. For context, the average retired-worker payout surpassed $2,000 for the first time in May 2025.

Sizable increases would also be in the cards for workers with disabilities and survivor beneficiaries. The average worker with disabilities and survivor beneficiary would each see their monthly payout increase by $57 in 2027 to approximately $1,693 and $1,692, respectively.

Best of all, Social Security's 2027 raise comes with a potential silver lining for tens of millions of retired-worker beneficiaries.

The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report calls for Medicare's Part B premium -- this is the segment of Medicare that covers outpatient services -- to climb by 3.25% to $209.50 per month in 2027. A relatively modest estimated percentage increase in the Part B premium would allow Social Security beneficiaries who are enrolled in traditional Medicare to retain more of next year's COLA.

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