Robinhood Stock Has Soared 65% From Its 52-Week Low. Here's Why I'm Predicting Another Sell-Off.

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) operates a popular investing platform where its clients buy and sell stocks, futures, options, cryptocurrency, and even contracts in the prediction markets. Its stock hit a 52-week low of $63 in March, capping off a brutal 57% decline from last year's record high of $154.

The sell-off was sparked by weakness in Robinhood's options and crypto trading businesses, which account for most of its transaction-based revenue. But the company's monthly brokerage metrics showed a recovery in those areas in May, so its stock has surged by around 65% from its March low.

While that sounds encouraging, I don't think the recovery will last. In fact, here's why I'm predicting another sharp move lower for the stock.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Robinhood's transaction-based revenue is on shaky foundations

The majority of Robinhood's revenue comes from the transaction fees it earns whenever a client buys or sells stocks, options, or cryptocurrencies. It generated $623 million in total transaction-based revenue during the first quarter of 2026 (ended March 31), which was a 20% decline from the fourth quarter of 2025 -- just three months earlier.

Options transaction revenue was the largest of four components, and it shrank by 17% to $260 million. Options contracts are financial derivatives that many of Robinhood's clients use to make risky directional bets on stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and other assets. The stock market was very unpredictable during the first quarter because of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which likely spooked many options traders.

Crypto transaction revenue experienced an even sharper sequential decline of 39% during the quarter, and came in at $134 million, the lowest level since 2024. The crypto market is in the throes of a brutal sell-off right now, and while highly speculative tokens like Dogecoin have declined the most, even Bitcoin is down 50% from its all-time high. This is likely keeping many investors sidelined.

Image source: Robinhood Markets.

Robinhood reports quarterly results like every other publicly listed American company, but it also reports monthly brokerage metrics to give shareholders a more frequent update on its clients' trading activity. During May, daily active trading volume in the options segment increased for the second straight month and hit the highest level of 2026 so far. This is a sign that the company's financial results for the second quarter (ending June 30) could bring an upside surprise.

However, history suggests it probably won't be sustainable. Spikes in trading volume in speculative segments like options and crypto tend to be very short-lived, because they are not markets where clients consistently make money. Earlier this year wasn't the first time Robinhood suffered a sharp drop in transaction revenue in the options and crypto segments -- it experienced even steeper declines after the stock market and crypto bull markets of 2021 came to an end.

Robinhood's valuation leaves little room for further upside

When the stock set its all-time high last October, its price-to-sales ratio (P/S) was more than 30, which was almost triple its long-term average of 11.8. That valuation simply wasn't sustainable. But even though the stock is well off its highs, its P/S is still at an elevated level of 20.8.

HOOD PS Ratio data by YCharts.

That suggests Robinhood stock would have to decline by 43% just to trade in line with its long-term average P/S of 11.8. But that isn't the worst part: Hypothetically, if the company's overall revenue shrinks during the next few quarters like it did in the first quarter, then its forward P/S might actually be higher than its current ratio, meaning the stock is actually more expensive today than it appears at face value.

Although the company had a record 27.4 million clients at the end of the first quarter, just 13.5 million were actively engaging with the platform each month, which is still 36% below its peak of 21.3 million from the second quarter of 2021. Because many of its clients engage in risky options and crypto trading -- where it's very difficult to generate consistent profits -- some will inevitably drop off over time.

As a result, I think Robinhood's revenue will continue to be incredibly lumpy and unpredictable, as it has been since the company went public in 2021. That isn't a recipe for sustained upside in its stock, especially from its current valuation.

Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.