The Price Is Right on TMC. But Is Cheap Enough Reason to Buy?

Although TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is a pre-revenue business, its stock shot up by over 450% in 2025 amid enthusiasm and policy tailwinds. Since reaching a peak of over $11 per share, however, TMC stock has sunk considerably. As of market open on April 6, the stock was trading at just $4.59.

The question investors must ask themselves is whether this pullback is truly an opportunity or a more ominous sign. Let's try and find out.

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TMC is a Canada-based, deep-sea mining company focused on polymetallic nodules containing nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese. It plans to use specially designed machinery to collect rocks from the ocean floor. As of now, TMC is awaiting approval from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to begin commercial operations.

In April 2025, the Trump administration signed an executive order advancing the interests of the deep-sea mining industry, and the stock skyrocketed in the months that followed.

The bull case for TMC

TMC needs regulatory approval from the NOAA to proceed with mining the sea floor. The company recently received an exciting update from the White House, which found TMC in "substantial compliance." This marks a crucial step forward in its application process.

It also has a substantial runway. As of the end of 2025, the mining company has $117.6 million in cash. However, operating losses exceeded $140 million last year and were markedly higher than the year before, when they were just over $81 million.

The company expects the NOAA to grant a permit within a year. If TMC gets the go-ahead, it would be a significant milestone and a positive sign of momentum toward commercial viability. Should the company receive regulatory approval and begin mining promptly, the potential upside could be huge.

The bear case for TMC

The industry in which TMC operates is highly dependent upon regulatory policies. If the NOAA delays or denies the necessary permit, the company's success would be in jeopardy.

There are also serious questions about the efficacy of TMC's technology. To date, there has been no successful commercial harvest of the metals from the deep sea by any company.

TMC has also come under scrutiny for its positioning as a green and sustainable mining company. A 2023 study found that management's methods were 80% less environmentally impactful than other methods of collection. But many scientists and environmentalists believe TMC's deep-sea mining could have unintended negative consequences for the ocean.

Ultimately, the stock may be cheaper than it was, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's undervalued. TMC is a highly speculative company with significant regulatory and execution threats. At the moment, it looks more like a risk than a reward. The company is still pre-revenue and has a long way to go before it starts generating earnings.

With environmental risks and uncertain technology, the upside potential of TMC is significantly dampened.

Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.