Could Investing $10,000 in NuScale Power Make You a Millionaire?

The premise seems brilliant now that it's proven safely possible. That is, reliable low-cost electricity provided by small, onsite nuclear power plants. Even if NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) isn't the only company developing such small modular reactors -- or SMRs -- there seems to be room for more than one player in the budding business.

But could a relatively small investment in this particular ticker turn into a seven-figure sum within a single lifetime? Despite all the bullish buzz that's surrounded this stock since 2023 when the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission first certified the design of NuScale's SMR, probably not.

Not an actual industry just yet

Don't misunderstand. NuScale isn't a bad prospect even if it does bring above-average risk to the table.

Chief among those risks of course is that -- despite several approved SMR designs and installation work now underway -- only two such power production facilities are operational right now, neither of which was built by NuScale Power. The world's never actually seen small modular reactors function en masse.

It won't anytime soon, either. Requiring years just to prepare a site, most of the ones in the works right now won't even start becoming operational until or after 2030, and even then it will take many more years for them to become somewhat common. It could take even longer for the world to become truly comfortable with small nuclear reactors operating anywhere, and eventually, everywhere. Much could happen to sidetrack the movement in the meantime.

Image source: Getty Images.

Just for the sake of argument, though, let's say small modular reactors live up to every expectation regarding safety, reliability, and power output. From an investor's perspective, does the fiscal math make sense? Yes and no.

It's not going to be an especially big industry

Sure, the hype may be well deserved. In the end, however, the small modular reactor business just isn't going to be particularly big. An outlook from Precedence Research suggests it will only be worth $16 billion per year by 2034, jibing with predictions from Roots Analysis and Straits Research. For perspective, NuScale's current market cap is already just under $4 billion.

NuScale Power won't be the only outfit jockeying for this business. Nano Nuclear Energy and Oklo are just a couple other names also developing SMRs. More will likely enter the market in the meantime.

But the company doesn't need to win all of this business to succeed, It just needs to win its fair share of it. There is room for upside even with just a small piece of the industry's future revenue.

Good, but not that good

There's the rub for hopeful investors, however -- while there's potential upside here, it's not 100-fold potential that could turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million. It would likely take something more along the lines of a $100,000 upfront investment in NuScale now to have any realistic shot of this position reaching the million-dollar mark anytime in the foreseeable future. And that's a considerably greater amount of money to put into an unproven prospect like this one. Most investors wisely won't want to risk that much on this sort of trade.

Still, that doesn't make it a bad (even if a somewhat riskier) opportunity. Most $10,000 investments aren't going to grow into $1 million in the span of a lifetime. It takes something truly once-in-a-generation special like Amazon -- or, more recently, Nvidia -- to do something like that.

Just keep it all in perspective, and your expectations in check.

James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.