Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before March 19? History Offers Compelling Evidence

One of the signature occasions for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) investors each year is the company's GPU Technology Conference (GTC). While the schedule varies, the event historically takes place once or twice each year and serves as a gathering for developers and a showcase of Nvidia's latest products. Since the dawn of artificial intelligence (AI) in early 2023, GTC has become "the world's premier AI and accelerated computing conference," according to the company.

CEO Jensen Huang, who has become something of a rockstar among the AI set, is scheduled to deliver the keynote address to kick off the conference on Monday, March 16, at 11:00 a.m. PT. In years past, the chief executive has unveiled Nvidia's latest product roadmaps, announced important partnerships, and expounded on the growing opportunity of AI -- and this year will likely be no different.

Given the hype surrounding the event, is Nvidia stock a buy ahead of the GTC? Let's dig into the details.

Image source: Getty Images.

Buy the rumor, sell the news

GTC generally provides a roadmap for Nvidia's future, and given the importance of the event, investors might be tempted to think of it as a money-making opportunity. Indeed, the conference last spring hosted more than 25,000 attendees, and another 300,000 who attended virtually.

Huang kicked off GTC 2025, saying that AI had reached an "inflection point" and that he expected to company to generate data center revenue of $1 trillion by 2028. He also heralded the development of the Blackwell Ultra AI chip, scheduled for release in late 2025, and the Vera Rubin AI chip, which was expected to launch later this year.

Given the magnitude of these announcements, investors might have expected the stock to jump on the news, but that wasn't the case, as Nvidia fell 14% in the month following the final day of the event. That wasn't an isolated incident either. Over the past 5 years, on the heels of the event, the stock has fallen 88% of the time, declining by 7% on average in the 30 days following the event.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

The problem with this data is that it highlights one of the worst times to buy Nvidia, after the stock has run up in the excitement leading up to the event. For context, during the same five years, the stock has risen 63% of the time in the 30 days before the event, gaining 7% on average.

Eagle-eyed investors will have spotted the conundrum here. While the stock gained 7%, on average, in the 30 days leading up to the event, it declined by the same amount in the 30 days following the event.

This highlights an important truth for investors. You can cherry-pick a time frame that supports your argument or thesis, but stepping back may provide a clearer picture.

The future of AI

Despite recent fears of a slowdown in AI adoption or an AI-related bubble, investors remain bullish on AI stocks, according to recent research by The Motley Fool. The data reveals that nine out of 10 investors plan to maintain or even increase their AI stock holdings, and 93% of investors who own AI stocks are confident that companies investing heavily in AI will deliver robust long-term returns.

Huang agrees. During Nvidia's earnings call last week, Huang said, "The ChatGPT moment of agentic AI has arrived." He went on to say that agentic AI had reached "an inflection point." These systems go beyond simple queries and can set goals, handle multi-step challenges, and do so with minimal human intervention. This is all possible because of the "hundreds of billions" of dollars in capital expenditures that companies have been pouring into AI -- which he says will translate directly into higher revenues.

Huang has his finger on the pulse of AI, and his insight into the state of the industry has been extremely reliable in the past. His comments are bullish for the future of AI, and -- by extension -- the future of Nvidia as well. Furthermore, since the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) are the gold standard for AI, Nvidia is well-positioned to ride these secular tailwinds higher.

To buy or not to buy

The data above is clear. Trying to make money on Nvidia stock over the next few weeks is a crapshoot at best. However, Nvidia's long-term results have been more consistent. Over the past decade, the company has increased its revenue by 5,120% and its net income by 20,550%. These stellar financial results have driven its stock price up 21,800%.

Yet investors who bought much later have still prospered, as Nvidia has generated market-beating returns over the past one-year, three-year, and five-year periods as well.

The data shows that rather than trying to make a few dollars trading into and out of Nvidia ahead of significant events, investors would be better served by buying the stock and holding it for years, if not decades.

And at 22 times forward earnings, I believe Nvidia stock is a buy -- particularly given the magnitude of the opportunity afforded by AI.

Danny Vena, CPA has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.