Germany: Gradual industrial recovery prospects – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner notes that German manufacturing orders rose 1.9% in May, or 1.0% excluding large orders, pointing to an upward trend. He argues this supports a moderate recovery in German industry and a slight recovery in the broader German economy after a likely small Q2 decline. For 2026, Commerzbank maintains a 0.6% growth forecast.

Orders signal modest industrial upturn

"Business is gradually picking up again in terms of new orders. These rose by a surprisingly strong 1.9% in May; even excluding large orders, which are prone to fluctuations, the increase was 1%. Based on this upward trend in orders, we expect a recovery in German industry, even if it is likely to be moderate."

"Seasonally and calendar-adjusted order intake in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.9% in May compared with April. Economists surveyed in advance had expected an increase of just over 1%. Excluding large orders, which typically fluctuate widely, the increase was 1.0%."

"Overall, today’s figures offer hope for a moderate recovery in German industry, which—after a long period of stagnation—had recently been further battered by the war in Iran."

"These are certainly all positive developments for German industry. However, we do not expect a strong recovery."

"All in all, we expect a slight recovery for the German economy after it likely recorded a small decline in the second quarter. For 2026 as a whole, we continue to expect growth of 0.6%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)