Brent: Support at $96 with tail-risk above $200 – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s commodity team notes Brent has lost its 50-day moving average and is testing support around $96. They map several Strait of Hormuz reopening scenarios, with early resolution pointing to Brent near $85 by year-end, later outcomes implying spikes toward $150–$160, and a low-probability prolonged disruption scenario where Brent could exceed $200 per barrel.

Hormuz scenarios drive wide price paths

"Brent carved out a lower high around $113 last week and has given up the 50-DMA for the first time since January."

"The low reached earlier in May, around $96, serves as interim support."

"If Brent fails to defend it, a deeper downtrend may take shape toward the ascending trend line drawn since March at $91/$90 and $86."

"In summary: an early June reopening would nudge Brent down steadily to around $85/bbl by year-end."

"The lower probability event of Hormuz staying shut until year-end means Brent could top $200/b."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)