Singapore: K-shaped NODX upswing to persist – UOB

UOB economist Jester Koh highlights a strong rebound in Singapore’s Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX), led by electronics and pharmaceuticals, with petrochemicals slightly softer. Koh argues that K-shaped export growth will likely persist, as AI-related electronics and semiconductors stay resilient while non-electronics exports face supply disruptions and higher energy prices, making it premature to call a peak in the tech cycle.

Electronics strength offsets non-electronics drag

"The K-shaped NODX growth is expected to persist in the months ahead, driven by sustained outperformance in the electronics/semiconductor segment amid strong AI-related demand and ongoing agentic rollout by firms."

"While there are signs of an emerging peak in the electronics/semiconductor cycle—[1] Taiwan’s tech exports to the US have likely already peaked (on a 3mma y/y basis), and [2] South Korea’s semiconductor exports moderated slightly in Apr in nominal terms but remained strong at over US$30bn—we believe it is still too premature to call for one."

"This reflects still-robust AI-related demand and the diffusion of AI applications into consumer electronics."

"In contrast, non-electronics exports may weaken, reflecting supply shortages in the chemicals segment and a surge in energy prices alongside broader spillovers, weighing on external demand."

"This likely reflects some element of front-loading in response to the US’s announced 100% tariffs (with deals and exemptions) on selected patented pharmaceuticals and their associated ingredients, scheduled to take effect on 31 Jul 2026 for certain large companies and 29 Sep 2026 for smaller firms."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)