HUF: Market repricing supports stable policy – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects an uneventful Hungarian National Bank (MNB) meeting, with all surveyed economists and market pricing pointing to unchanged rates over the next six months. Earlier expectations for more than 60 basis points of hikes have been repriced to more realistic levels, suggesting a quiet session for the Hungarian Forint (HUF) after its strong post‑election rally, which the bank sees as potentially welcome.

Unspectacular MNB meeting after rally

"The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) is holding its monthly meeting today, but it would be a major surprise if interest rates were to change."

"All economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate this outcome, and market expectations also suggest that rates will remain unchanged over the next six months."

"This is particularly important to note, given that prior to the last central bank meeting at the end of March, the market had priced in more than 60 basis points of rate hikes for the coming months."

"We were already sceptical back then as to whether the MNB could truly meet such high expectations. Following this repricing, however, market expectations now look significantly more realistic."

"In short, there are unlikely to be any surprises from the MNB today, suggesting a quiet day for the HUF. After the significant rally following the recent election, however, this may actually be welcome."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)