Elon Musk Offers to Cancel SpaceX Government Contracts: Can the Stock Live Without Them?

SpaceX (SPCX) shares rose about 6% on Friday despite Elon Musk offering to cancel any federal contract the government no longer wants. He said government work is under 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter.

The bounce repairs only part of the damage. SpaceX lost 12.5% of its market value in the two sessions after Democrats won Congress, leaving June IPO buyers below their $135 entry price.

How Much of SpaceX’s Revenue Comes From Washington?

Musk was replying to Warren Redlich, who urged him to offer Democrats a list of contracts to cancel.

“Moreover government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter and less then 5% a year from now. Happy to cancel any that the government doesn’t want. Just say the word!” Must stated.

At Musk’s figure, government work would be at most about $1.46 billion of SpaceX’s $14.58 billion third-quarter revenue. However, the 10% figure is a forecast that results have not yet confirmed.

TipRanks argued that Washington still depends on SpaceX’s rockets and satellites. In September, NASA added $946 million to SpaceX’s astronaut contract, bringing it to $5.92 billion.

Musk’s figure also sits well below SpaceX’s own filing. Its S-1, the disclosure filed before going public, put US government agencies at about one-fifth of 2025 revenue.

Since then, the AI division has outgrown the rest of the company, bringing in $7.56 billion of that third-quarter total.

Exactly 😂Tesla has no government contracts and President Trump ended federal incentives for electric vehicles. SpaceX contracts with the government are BOTH the best product AND the lowest price! Moreover government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this… https://t.co/T0tJTHal7U

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2026

Why Contracts May Not Be SpaceX Stock’s Biggest Risk

Democrats, whose win triggered the Tesla and SpaceX selloff, can hold hearings and demand records from January. Still, an investigation alone would not cancel existing contracts.

Musk’s offer also leaves the AI side untouched. Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat who won the Texas governor’s race, wants to pause new data center approvals until power and water protections are in place.

That plan targets the business now producing more than half of SpaceX’s sales.

SPCX first slipped below its IPO price in late October, then recovered above $140 before the vote.

Two tests now follow:

• Fourth-quarter results will show whether government revenue really drops under 10%.

• Hinojosa and the new Congress both take office in January.

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