Dan Ives Puts Tesla-SpaceX Merger at 80% Odds: Will It Become the World's Biggest Company?

Wedbush’s Dan Ives says a Tesla-SpaceX merger has better-than-80% odds within the next year and a half. He argues the combined firm could become the world’s largest company by market value.

The remarks came during a wider debate about whether the AI-driven bull market can keep climbing. Ives and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee were responding to a selloff that had pushed semiconductor stocks down about 19% from their highs. The S&P 500, meanwhile, sat only 2.6% off its record.

The Case for a Tesla-SpaceX Merger

Ives argued that Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) are converging on shared technology and data infrastructure. The two Elon Musk-led firms share more than just a founder, he said.

A merger would give investors exposure to Tesla’s AI ambitions and SpaceX’s rocket and satellite business under one ticker.

Ives has described physical AI, meaning autonomous technology and robotics, as the industry’s biggest prize. He ties the Tesla-SpaceX case directly to that theme.

Ives has also built his bull case partly on the U.S.-China chip gap. He has said demand for AI chips outstrips supply by roughly 13 to 1. He expects that gap to persist for years.

“Tesla and SpaceX ultimately merge.”

Dan Ives, The Compound podcast

Ives made a similar prediction to CNBC in July. He put better-than-80% odds on SpaceX taking over Tesla. That topped the 69% chance Kalshi’s prediction market assigned to a merger before 2028.

SpaceX’s own stock has swung sharply since its June debut, a pattern one BeInCrypto analysis compared to Meta’s 2012 crash.

Ives did not detail how a merger would be structured or when shareholders might vote on it.

Whether Musk moves toward combining a public automaker with a private, rocket-launching AI company remains an open question. So does how regulators would view combining two companies of that size.