Brent Oil Eyes $115 Breakout After Trump’s ‘Clock Ticking’ Warning to Iran

Brent crude oil price climbed near $111 on Monday after President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s “clock is ticking.” The weekend Truth Social post fueled fresh fears of a renewed Middle East conflict that could choke global supply.

The International Energy Agency flagged record inventory depletion in its latest monthly update. The daily Brent crude chart now shows a symmetrical triangle approaching the apex that often dictates direction.

Daily Triangle Sets Stage for Brent’s Next Big Move

The daily Brent crude oil chart shows price coiling inside a symmetrical triangle. The pattern began forming on March 19. Such patterns typically resolve once price travels roughly 70 to 80 percent of the way to the apex. The current setup is approaching that threshold.

The triangle traces lower highs and higher lows. Point A sits near $120, point B near $92, point C near $116, and point D near $100. The squeeze suggests a directional decision is close.

This compression marks the second re-accumulation zone for oil. It sits above the first base built between December 22, 2025, and February 26. From that earlier zone, Brent broke out and produced a sharp rally toward $120.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads near 58 on the daily timeframe. That print is neutral but trending higher. A push above 60 would add momentum confirmation to any upside break.

Strong buying activity confirmed the late February breakout from the first accumulation zone. A similar surge on a $115 retest would strengthen the upside case.

Macro signals point in the same direction. The IEA has warned that global oil inventories are depleting at a record pace. Swiss bank UBS projects stockpiles could fall near a record low of 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May.

Brent Crude Price Prediction Hinges on $115 Resistance

On the four-hour timeframe, Brent crude oil price moves inside a horizontal parallel channel. Support sits near $94 and resistance at roughly $115. After the February 26 breakout, price ran to the upper band before retreating to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $88.

Since then, price has been ping-ponging inside the channel. The latest leg cleared the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $107.68. Brent now sits near $111 as it attempts another run at $115.

A confirmed close above $115 would open the path toward the prior high near $119.58. Such a move would project an upside extension of the entire channel range. Failure at $115 likely sends Brent back toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $100.32.

The $94 channel floor remains the deeper line of defense. The RSI climbs into bullish territory near 70, supporting the upside case in the near term.

Geopolitics sharpens the binary outcome. A fragile ceasefire reached in April has done little to ease tensions across the region.

The Hormuz waterway remains mostly shut. Tehran continues to block the strait, while Washington keeps Iranian ports under blockade.

Trump’s “clock is ticking” warning leaves little room for de-escalation with Iran. Any further breakdown in talks could trigger the breakout the chart has been preparing for. With inventories thin and rhetoric escalating, the next move on Brent could come fast.