BlackRock Warns AI Capex Is Turning Micro Into Macro for Markets

BlackRock Investment Institute warned investors that company-level AI capex now drives the entire macro market backdrop. The asset manager said its first 2026 theme, micro is macro, captures the shift.

The note from strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li lands as Big Tech capital spending tracks roughly $725 billion this year. That figure is up about 10% from estimates made before first-quarter earnings. Capex on this scale rivals traditional macro drivers.

AI Capex Now Rivals Traditional Macro Forces

The micro-is-macro thesis argues that capex from a few firms shapes growth, earnings, and yields. That spending now rivals central bank policy as a market driver.

BlackRock estimates AI infrastructure investment could reach $5 trillion to $8 trillion this decade. The Magnificent Seven recently tracked roughly 57% quarterly earnings growth. AI is now the dominant force behind US equity gains.

The firm believes AI could be the first innovation in 150 years strong enough to lift US growth above 2%. It stresses that the outcome remains uncertain.

Inflation and the Strait of Hormuz raise the stakes

Sticky price pressures were already elevated before the Strait of Hormuz closure added fresh energy risks. BlackRock now sees about three rate hikes priced into Europe, with the U.S. on hold.

The firm stays overweight US and emerging-market equities. It cautions that long-term Treasuries no longer offer the portfolio ballast they once did. Higher yields, paired with sticky inflation, could begin to pressure valuations if disruptions persist.

Bitcoin gets caught in the macro crosswind

The crypto market reflects the same forces. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $80,646, roughly 36% below its October 2025 record of $126,080. Ethereum (ETH) sits around $2,260, more than 50% off its August 2025 peak.

Capital that once flowed to risk assets is being diverted to AI capex and energy security, raising competition for funding. BlackRock argues that genuine diversification now requires private markets and hedge funds rather than traditional cross-asset spreads.

Rising leverage, weaker traditional hedges, and a few mega forces driving everything leave little room for passive positioning. Whether AI capex sustains its growth premium or starts to crowd out other assets is now the key question. The answer may set the tone for risk markets through the second half of 2026.