Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC steadies as traders eye US–Iran talks
- Bitcoin price steadies near $68,000 on Thursday after recovering 6.2% the previous day.
- US-listed spot ETFs attracted over $500 million on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of inflows.
- Market participants await the US-Iran third round of nuclear talks, which could inject fresh volatility into BTC and broader risk markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing around $68,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after a 6.2% relief rally the previous day amid a broader downward trend. Institutional demand supported the Crypto King’s recovery, as spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded their second consecutive day of inflows so far this week. Traders await the US-Iran third round of nuclear talks on Thursday, which could trigger volatility in the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Institutional demand returns
Institutional demand supported Bitcoin’s price action so far this week. SoSoValue data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $506.51 million on Wednesday, after a $257.71 million inflow the previous day. If this positive inflow trend continues and intensifies, the BTC price could extend its recovery.
Apart from the return in industrial demand, Nvidia’s (NVDA) blockbuster fourth-quarter earnings further lifted investor sentiment, with US equities closing at a one-week high on Wednesday. The chipmaker reported Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase. This strong performance reinforced confidence in the AI-driven growth narrative and boosted broader risk appetite, with BTC rising 6% to close above $67,900 that day.
US-Iran talks could trigger volatility in BTC
Market participants now await Iran-US headlines, as both countries are scheduled to hold the third round of talks this Thursday in Geneva aimed at resolving the longstanding nuclear dispute, amid the risk of imminent US strikes following a large-scale buildup of American forces in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump’s speech in the State of the Union address on early Asian session on Wednesday laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran and said he would not allow the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.
If the US-Iran talks conclude without any major breakthrough, it could keep geopolitical risks in play. This development dampens the market sentiment, prompting investors to move towards safe-haven assets such as Gold (XAU), while weighing on Bitcoin.
On the contrary, any signs of constructive progress or a diplomatic breakthrough could ease tensions, improve investor confidence and support a rebound in risk assets, potentially allowing Bitcoin to extend its recovery momentum.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Mild signs of recovery
The Crypto King price on the 4-hour chart trades at $68,500 as of writing on Thursday. The near-term bias leans mildly bullish as price holds above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $66,900 and challenges the 100-period EMA clustered around $68,500, signalling an attempt to transition from recovery to short-term uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart at 60 shows positive momentum without overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the signal line and above the zero line, with a positive histogram that reflects strengthening upside pressure after the recent rebound from the mid-$63,000, around Tuesday’s low.
Initial support is located at the 50-period EMA around $66,900, with a deeper cushion emerging toward the horizontal support at $60,000.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 100-period EMA around $68,500, and a sustained break above this area would expose the channel region, with the upper boundary projected closer to $71,600 as the next upside objective.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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