Brent Oil rises above $97.00 as Iran's ceasefire wobbles
- Brent Oil prices have appreciated 5% so far this week, reaching highs above $97.00.
- Escalating tensions between the US and Iran are boosting crude prices higher this week.
- Deutsche Bank analysts warn that Brent prices might reach $150 on a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude prices rise for their third day in a row on Wednesday, as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran cast further doubt about a fragile ceasefire. Brent crude, the global benchmark for Oil prices, is trading at $97.25 at the time of writing, about 5% up on the week and a few cents below one-week highs of $97.77.
The US military announced “self-defence” strikes on Iranian Qeshm island on Wednesday, following reports of Iranian attacks in Gulf countries. Kuwait has reported significant material damage at its international airport and several wounded people after a drone attack.
These hostilities follow Tehran's announcement of the suspension of talks with the US and its vow of retaliation for what it considered violations of the ceasefire agreement.
US President Donald Trump reiterated in a Truth Social post on Tuesday that negotiations with Tehran are ongoing and that reports to the contrary are simply fake news. Markets, however, are growing increasingly sceptical about a negotiated end of the war and a swift reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz, which is driving Oil prices towards the key $100 level.
Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid and colleagues warn that the Brent crude barrel could reach $150 if Hormuz remains closed for a long time: “If the Strait of Hormuz experiences a prolonged closure, that would push Brent towards $150/bbl, hitting global growth and pushing Europe into recession."
Brent Crude Oil FAQs
Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply.
Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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