Australian Dollar remains steady as Aussie CPI test looms

• AUD/USD trades flat as Iran tensions temper risk appetite.
• Hot CPI could pressure RBA after three rate hikes.
• US data spotlight shifts to GDP, jobs and Core PCE.

The Australian Dollar hovers at around its Tuesday’s opening price during the North American session, with traders awaiting the release of the Aussie’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Meanwhile, geopolitics are weighing on the AUD/USD, which is trading flat at 0.7170.

AUD/USD steadies as traders await key inflation data

During Tuesday’s Asian session, US military strikes on Iran shook markets that had been enjoying some upside, after over-the-weekend news from US President Donald Trump revealed progress in US-Iran negotiations.

In the meantime, data from the US showed that American consumers are becoming pessimistic due to high energy prices, which are now affecting several sectors of the economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.1 in May, though it still beat economists’ forecast of 92, according to Bloomberg’s poll.

Aside from this, AUD/USD traders are laser-focused on the release of the Australian inflation, which is projected to edge lower from 4.6% in March to 4.4% YoY in April. The Trimmed Mean CPI, sought by many as the most relevant inflation reading, is estimated to accelerate by 3.4% YoY, up from 3.3% in March.

If the data comes in hotter than expected, it would put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has so far tightened policy three times this year by 75 basis points due to high inflation readings. Nevertheless, an uptick in the latest employment report spurred worries that monetary policy might be slightly restrictive, triggering a deeper slowdown.

In the US, the economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, the second reading of Q1 2026 GDP, labour market data, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7168, retaining a constructive near-term bullish bias as spot holds above the cluster of rising trend-line supports drawn from 0.6897 and 0.6833, which currently intersect just under 0.7130. The latest 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 0.7100 sit comfortably below price and reinforce the notion of an underlying uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 51 suggests only modest, directionless momentum, leaving price action rather than oscillators to guide the immediate tone.

On the downside, initial support lies in the 0.7124–0.7129 rising trendline zone, with further protection provided by the grouped SMAs near 0.7100 and, on a wider horizon, the previously broken descending trendline now acting as a historical floor around 0.6455. On the topside, resistance is projected from former support trend structures now capping the advance toward 0.7762 and then 0.8160, and unless these upper boundaries are challenged, the pair is likely to remain in a grinding but still constructive ascent above its rising daily supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)