GBP: UK Retail resilience tempers data impact – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts note United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales for February beat expectations, showing only slight mean reversion after strong gains and maintaining a positive three‑month trend. Weather-related weakness was broad but not fundamentally alarming. They judge the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unlikely to react strongly, while GfK confidence fell to its lowest since Liberation Day 2025 but still showed consumer resilience.

Retail beat but MPC reaction limited

"UK retail sales surprised to the upside, coming in at -0.4%m/m (TDS: -0.6%; mkt: -0.7%; prior: 1.8%) after two very strong months. This demonstrates slight mean reversion but keeps a positive trend, having risen 0.7% 3m/3m. "

"The monthly data showed a broad decline, with most sectors affected by adverse weather, though none stood out in fundamental weakness. Given that this is February's data, it doesn't yet give any clues to how consumers have responded to the onset of the Middle East conflict, but could be used as a representation of the baseline momentum seen throughout the winter months The MPC is not likely to take much signal from this release."

"Today's March GfK consumer confidence gave a more timely evaluation of sentiment. This dropped to -21, its lowest level since Liberation Day in 2025, but was a smaller drop than the market expected, suggesting some lingering resilience in the consumer."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)