Bitcoin Faces Worst Fourth Quarter Since 2018 as Market Fatigue Persists

Bitcoin's recent push back toward the $90,000 mark has provided the cryptocurrency market with a short-term lift, but few analysts view the move as a meaningful turning point following one of the weakest second halves in recent years.

Major tokens traded within a narrow range over the past 24 hours, with XRP, Ether, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) rising as much as 2%. Meanwhile, Aave (AAVE) extended its decline, dropping around 7% amid an ongoing governance dispute, marking it as one of the session's worst performers.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has once again moved above $3 trillion—a psychologically significant level that has served as a key battleground between buyers and sellers over the past month. While prices are higher on the day, analysts caution that the rebound reflects exhaustion rather than renewed conviction.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that the market's recent strength is largely technical and driven by a low base following weeks of selling pressure. “The crypto market is making a new attempt at growth, but this is not yet a recovery,” Kuptsikevich said. He added that sentiment has only improved modestly, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbing to 25—suggesting traders are stepping away from extreme pessimism but not yet embracing risk.

Bitcoin was trading near $88,000 during Asian hours on Tuesday, testing the upper end of a range that has held since early last week. Kuptsikevich warned that short-term momentum could prove misleading, especially given the broader context. Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and is trading below levels seen at the start of the year.

“Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back to zero are little consolation,” he said, noting that disappointment has largely replaced the optimism that dominated markets earlier this year.

FONTE: CoinGlass

Seasonal trends reinforce the cautious outlook. Data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin is down more than 22% so far in the fourth quarter, positioning 2025 as one of the weakest year-end periods outside of major bear markets.

While the fourth quarter has historically produced some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies, it has also delivered sharp drawdowns during periods marked by tightening liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty. The market remains vulnerable to sudden reversals, particularly during U.S. trading hours, where gains from Asian and European sessions have repeatedly faded upon the opening of North American markets.