Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Could Crush the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has been on a seemingly unstoppable run lately, earning total returns of nearly 80% over the past three years, as of this writing. That said, there are still plenty of stocks outperforming the benchmark index.

Industry-leading tech companies, specifically, have experienced explosive growth as AI continues to dominate the sector. While past performance doesn't predict future returns, there's one ETF I believe is well-positioned to capitalize on future growth: the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: MGK).

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A powerful investment with a strong track record

Large-cap stocks are generally defined as those with a market cap of at least $10 billion, while mega-cap stocks typically have a market cap of at least $200 billion. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF focuses exclusively on the largest U.S. companies with strong growth potential, holding nearly 60 mega-cap names.

This fund was launched in 2007, and since then, it's already significantly outperformed the S&P 500. If you'd invested $10,000 in either the Mega Cap Growth ETF or an S&P 500 ETF, you'd have around $106,000 or $73,000, respectively, by today.

^SPX data by YCharts

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF has outpaced the S&P 500 by a wider and wider margin over time, thanks at least in part to tech giants earning staggering returns. Tech stocks make up the majority of the fund, and its top three holdings -- Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft -- combined account for over one-third of the overall portfolio.

With more high-profile companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all hitting the market soon, the mega-cap space could expand even further. If large companies continue to outperform as they have over the last several years, this ETF will be well-positioned for significant growth.

One major risk factor to consider

Perhaps the biggest risk with this ETF is its relative lack of diversification. Its narrow focus on mega-cap growth stocks has resulted in above-average returns in recent years, but if this segment of the market falters, this ETF could be hit hard.

Throughout the 2022 bear market, for example, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF fell by around 35%, compared to only 24% for the S&P 500.

^SPX data by YCharts

Many of the top holdings also focus on AI development, which could be both lucrative and volatile. If you choose to buy, holding for at least a few years can help reduce the impact of that volatility. It's also wise to ensure the rest of your portfolio is well-diversified with stocks outside the tech sector to further mitigate risk.

Again, past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. But for investors looking to capitalize on the largest growth stocks in the U.S., the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF could continue beating the market for years to come.

Katie Brockman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.