Crypto whales divided: who’s bullish or bearish on oil?

Crypto whales and large funds have split on their oil predictions. As Brent oil hovered around $102, crypto traders used their 24/7 market to place bets on a directional move. 

Crypto whales moved into oil in March, as commodities became one of the hottest markets on Hyperliquid. Arkham identified several large-scale wallets, setting up two major camps with long and short positions on oil. 

Those positions may reflect short-term sentiment or the possibility of the market reacting to immediate news about supply shocks or the normalization of deliveries. Hyperliquid allows traders to benefit even from those short-term price moves. 

Which crypto whales are going long on oil? 

Cumberland, one of the long-running crypto market makers, has built a $15.56M Brent long position and a $12.5M long on the WTI contract on Trade[.]XYZ. 

Rune Christensen has longed Brent for $6.65M, with $1M for WTI. Flow Traders hold a $3M long position on WTI, and Cookerflips has opened a $1.9M long position on WTI. 

In total, Brent open interest is over $475M, with $323M for the WTI CL contract. For the past two weeks, the contracts have taken up the lead in terms of open interest on HIP-3. Commodities have slowed down their trading activity in the past few days from the peak on March 23, with $4.5B in volumes, but the market remains responsive to changing oil supply conditions. 

Which whales are shorting oil?

As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, Abraxas Capital built one of the biggest short positions on both Brent and WTI oil in the past week. Abraxas Capital retained $130M in open positions, shorting the two most active contracts. 

The second-biggest position belongs to CBB0FE, with $14.7M short on Brent and $12.8M on WTI. Yixie has a $5M short position on WTI, and Locarle shorted Brent for $4.86M.

Overall, HIP-3 makes 22.8% of Hyperliquid activity, down from a recent spike to 47.7%. HIP-3 is no longer growing exponentially after the initial hype, but remains a key arena of directional bets.

For now, the bets on an oil downturn are the more active positions, potentially expecting a resolution of the Strait of Hormuz situation.

The Brent and WTI markets rallied recently, and have not caught up with the cumulative volumes of silver and gold. To date, silver is the most successful HIP-3 contract, with over $39B in cumulative trades. 

Gold comes in second with $27.9B. WTI oil recently broke above $16B, after becoming the first contract to rally. Brent has so far traded $6B on HIP-3, as traders switched to the benchmark oil brand only in the past week or two. The presence of some of the biggest crypto funds and market makers shows HIP-3 had a lasting effect on the market, with the potential for copy-trading and compensating for the slower token trading. 

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