Forex Today: US Dollar jumps after Warsh-led Fed holds rates, hints upcoming hike
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 18:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged toward the 100.40 level on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June policy decision, in which the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as widely expected, in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair.
Despite the expected hold decision, the Fed struck a hawkish tone by removing its previous reference to “additional rate adjustments” from the statement, a shift markets interpreted as a move toward a more cautious, data-dependent stance.
Fed policymakers now see US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 2.2% in 2026, down from the 2.4% projected in March, while longer-run growth was left unchanged at 2.0%. The dot plot also reinforced a cautious policy outlook. The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4%, signaling that officials now see a possible rate hike this year.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.05% | 1.15% | 0.18% | 0.89% | 0.92% | 1.25% | 0.93% | |
| EUR | -1.05% | 0.10% | -0.83% | -0.18% | -0.14% | 0.22% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | -1.15% | -0.10% | -0.94% | -0.25% | -0.20% | 0.12% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | -0.18% | 0.83% | 0.94% | 0.68% | 0.72% | 1.01% | 0.77% | |
| CAD | -0.89% | 0.18% | 0.25% | -0.68% | 0.03% | 0.36% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.92% | 0.14% | 0.20% | -0.72% | -0.03% | 0.34% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -1.25% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -1.01% | -0.36% | -0.34% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.93% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.77% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD came under pressure near an eight-week low near 1.1500, as a stronger Greenback weighed on the pair. The Euro also remained cautious after European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olaf Sleijpen said that a repeat of 2022’s inflation problems appears less likely but cannot be excluded, adding that the key issue for Eurozone monetary policy is the risk of second-round effects.
GBP/USD fell sharply to a two-month low near 1.3270 amid broad US Dollar strength. Traders remain focused on the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday, with the central bank expected to hold rates at 3.75%.
USD/JPY skyrocketed near a two-year high at the 160.80 region after the Fed decision. The pair benefited from renewed demand for the US Dollar as Warsh emphasized the need for more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target.
AUD/USD lost ground near 0.7000 as improved risk sentiment offered some support to the Australian Dollar. Market mood improved partially after US President Donald Trump defended the ceasefire framework with Iran, saying the Strait of Hormuz had reopened and warning that bombing could resume if Tehran “acts up.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices remained neutral near $75.40 per barrel, as data showed several Iranian Oil tankers had passed through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran framework deal, raising expectations that Middle East supply could return to the market. However, geopolitical risks remain high, limiting the downside for crude.
Gold fell sharply near $4,240 as the US Dollar surged following the Fed decision. The precious metal remained supported by geopolitical uncertainty, but higher US yields and a more cautious Fed tone limited demand for the non-yielding asset.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, June 18:
- Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report
- UK Employment Data (Apr/May)
- Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
- Germany Buba Monthly Report
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jun)
- New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey (Q2)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (May)
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- Japan National CPI (May)
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Friday, June 19:
- Germany PPI (May)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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