Copper: Oversupplied now, tight balance and high prices ahead – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht highlights that the global Copper market showed a large surplus in Q1 2026 as refined output surged, especially in China and the DR Congo. Demand grew less than 1%, but Lambrecht expects this to reverse, with stronger consumption and slower production growth supporting prices and a Copper target of USD 14,000 per ton by year-end.

From Q1 surplus to tightening market

"Yet in the first quarter, the global copper market was still in good shape. Thanks to a sharp rise in refined copper production, the International Copper Study Group reported a large supply surplus of nearly 400,000 tons - three times as high as in the first quarter of 2025."

"However, we believe the trends on both the supply and demand sides will reverse. While demand momentum is expected to pick up, production growth should slow, which in turn should support copper prices in the medium term."

"By year-end, we expect a copper price of USD 14,000 per ton."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)