S&P 500 Index: Returns following record highs are positive – UBS

The S&P 500 hit record highs on five consecutive days. Can the S&P 500 continue to hit record highs? Investors should stay invested despite all-time highs, analysts at UBS say.

The current conditions remain positive for further equity gains

Returns following record highs are positive. Over the past 60 years, in the one, two, and three-year periods following a new all-time high, S&P 500 returns have averaged 12%, 23%, and 39%, respectively. This is very similar to the 12%, 25%, and 38% average returns for all other periods over the same time frames.

In addition, the S&P 500 trades within 5% of a record high 60% of the time, and only 12% of the time more than 20% below its last all-time high. The cost of waiting for a pullback can be quite high.

The current conditions remain positive for further equity gains. A solid start to the fourth quarter US reporting season supports our forecast for 8% earnings per share growth from S&P 500 companies this year.