Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC extends gains as ETF inflows, US-Iran peace hopes ease market fears
- Bitcoin trades higher near the 50-day EMA, with a close above it suggesting further gains.
- US-listed spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of $211.49 million on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows.
- Hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ease geopolitical and energy-market concerns, boosting risk sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $64,316 at the time of writing on Wednesday, heading toward the key resistance zone, where a breakout suggests further gains. Institutional demand supports BTC price action with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording a second consecutive day of inflows so far this week. In addition, hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ease geopolitical and energy-market concerns, boosting risk sentiment and supporting Crypto King’s price.
Hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough boost risk appetite
Despite the mixed signals surrounding the US-Iran war, investors remain hopeful about a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or Wednesday this week and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict.
According to a report from Axios, the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US aiming for a Wednesday announcement, sources said. The report also stated that the deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz Strait.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase oil production from September helps ease supply concerns and has dragged crude prices to a fresh low since June 13.
These developments have eased geopolitical and energy-market concerns, while lower prices of the black liquid could help reduce inflationary pressures and expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed).
This can be seen from the CME FedWatch Tool; market participants are currently pricing in a 58.9% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 64.7% on Tuesday, which is seen exerting pressure on the US Dollar and supporting risk assets such as BTC.
Institutional demand shows signs of a comeback
Institutional demand continues the week on a positive note.SoSoValue data show that spot BTC ETFs recorded an inflow of $211.49 million on Tuesday after an inflow of $170.09 million the previous day. If these inflows continue and intensify throughout the week, BTC could see a recovery.
BTC technical outlook: BTC nears the key 50-day EMA
Bitcoin price trades at $64,316 on Wednesday, holding a mild bearish bias as it remains capped beneath a dense band of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). BTC price is marginally below the 50-day EMA at $64,650, with the 100-day EMA at $67,079 and the 200-day EMA at $72,649 reinforcing the overhead supply zone and suggesting that rebounds are still corrective within a wider downside structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 is close to neutral on the daily chart, hinting at a lack of strong directional conviction. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line, which subtly reinforces lingering bearish pressure despite the recent stabilization.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50-day EMA near $64,650, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $67,079, followed by the 200-day EMA at $72,649.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the horizontal level at $64,004, where failure to hold would expose the pair to a deeper retracement, leaving BTC vulnerable to renewed selling pressure below the recent range floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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