All eyes on February 20 as Supreme Court delays ruling on Trump’s tariffs

The United States Supreme Court didn’t rule on President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Tuesday as anticipated. The Court’s latest batch of decisions issued Tuesday morning did not include the tariffs case.

According to reports, the justices will be hearing arguments on Wednesday about Trump’s effort to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, but it isn’t scheduled to release opinions.

After Wednesday, the court is preparing to begin a four-week recess, and under its usual procedures for releasing opinions, the next potential day for a tariff decision is February 20.

Polymarket bettors see a 31% chance court favors Trump

At hearings late last year, the justices were skeptical enough of the White House’s claims that the markets are now expecting the Supreme Court to rule against Trump.

According to the betting website Polymarket, there is a 31% chance the court will side with the White House, though this probability has decreased since earlier this month.

Trade lawyers claim that the upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs could deny him the legal power to carry out new tariff threats, including those aimed at NATO members over Greenland’s sovereignty.

The lawyers stated that the targeted tariff threats made by Trump over the weekend would likely rest on the same legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) that the Supreme Court will decide.

Michael Lowell, partner and chair of the Global Regulatory Enforcement Group, stated, “Similar to the Brazil tariffs, if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA doesn’t give the president tariff power, then these tariffs being threatened on NATO members would be illegal.”

As reported by Cryptopolitan, Trump announced Saturday that if a deal is not reached, allowing Washington to acquire Greenland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland would face increasing tariffs, starting at 10% on February 1 and rising to 25% on June 1.

According to Michael Lowell, if the Court overturns the tariffs, companies in the NATO group that would have to pay the threatened tariffs may have to take new legal steps. “It may still be necessary for companies that import from those countries to bring suit to enforce […]that would be a quick lawsuit since the law would be clear by the ruling.”

European leaders have described this latest tariff salvo as a form of blackmail. They are reportedly deliberating on potential responses, including implementing an anti-coercion instrument which could limit US access to the European Union, the world’s third-largest economy.

Trump to use Section 232 investigation on minerals to levy tariffs

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it’s “very unlikely” that the Supreme Court will overturn Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. According to him, even if the administration loses, new tariffs will go into effect immediately.

Trade attorneys also say the president could use the recently completed Section 232 investigation on critical minerals to levy tariffs. Greenland is a mineral-rich island that is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark.

The section dictates that if negotiations do not work, “it may be appropriate to impose import restrictions, such as tariffs, if satisfactory agreements are not reached in a timely manner.” 

In the latest Section 232 policy on critical minerals, the language states that the executive branch of the government reserves the right for the president to impose tariffs.

However, a ruling against Trump on tariffs would deliver his biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House. A decision against Trump could also open the way for more than $130 billion in refunds. 

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