Geopolitical risks keep Oil, Gas volatility elevated – Rabobank

Fundamentals point to a well-supplied energy market in 2026, with growing non-OPEC production and new LNG capacity weighing on prices. Geopolitical uncertainty—from Iran to Greenland tariffs—adds volatility, though critical US-EU energy flows are expected to remain intact, Rabobank's Senior Energy Strategist Florence Schmit reports.

US-EU tariff threats unlikely to hit LNG flows

"Fundamentals point to a well‑supplied 2026: The global energy balance is expected to remain comfortable because non‑OPEC supply from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana continues to grow, OPEC+ has paused further output hikes to avoid deepening an anticipated surplus, and a large wave of new LNG capacity from the U.S. and Qatar is coming online, all of which support our forecasts for lower oil and gas prices in 2026 versus 2025 levels."

"Meanwhile geopolitical risks could pull energy markets off their base case: the overall price trajectory is complicated by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, ranging from risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to the widening U.S.-EU tariff confrontation over Greenland, both of which have already triggered market swings and are likely to maintain elevated volatility as long as the political direction remains unclear."

"The deep interconnectedness of EU-U.S. energy markets make it unlikely that either side will target LNG or broader fuel flows in any tariff escalation, since Europe depends heavily on U.S. supplies and the U.S. now relies on Europe as its primary LNG outlet after losing China as a major buyer."