China drives 300% surge in semi-finished steel exports

China has dumped a staggering 7.4 million tons of semi-finished steel into the global market between January and July 2025, a 320% increase compared to the same period last year, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

These exports, mostly steel billets, are now dominating international steel trade, despite global attempts to throw up barriers. This wave comes as China’s domestic demand stays weak, especially in real estate and construction.

Steel billet exports, which used to make up only a sliver of China’s overall shipments, hit 1.5 million tons in July alone, making up 14% of all outbound steel that month. Countries like Vietnam and South Korea have been targeting finished steel with anti-dumping rules, but that hasn’t touched semi-finished products. That’s where the trade shifted.

Beijing boosts exports as hot-rolled coil shipments fall

Jinshan Xie, a ferrous analyst at Horizon Insights, said the rise in semi-finished exports will likely continue unless Beijing steps in. “Unless there are mandatory production curbs that restrict domestic supplies, we expect billet exports to continue as China is very price competitive,” Jinshan said.

The appeal of semis is simple, they’re harder to regulate and cheaper to ship. That’s why while hot-rolled coil exports dropped 13%, semi-finished steel went up by more than four times.

But not everyone inside China agrees with the surge. The China Iron and Steel Association argued in July that this trade damages local processing capabilities. They claim the steel is being exported raw, only to be rolled abroad, leaving China with wasted industrial capacity.

They also said the trend keeps iron ore prices inflated, which hurts domestic steelmakers who still rely on expensive raw materials.

Despite those concerns, the shipments kept moving, mostly to Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Indonesia took in 1.14 million tons, making it the top buyer so far this year. The Philippines came next with just under a million tons, then Turkey, Italy, and Saudi Arabia followed.

This rerouting of steel flows has caught attention, especially since most governments had focused on restricting finished steel, not these unfinished blocks.

Trade envoy heads to Washington as tensions linger

While the steel keeps moving, Beijing is sending Li Chenggang to Washington this week. The Wall Street Journal reported that Li, who is now vice commerce minister and trade envoy, will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Department officials. He’s also scheduled to meet U.S. business leaders, marking the first major visit since the countries agreed on a temporary truce.

That pause came after President Donald Trump gave China 90 more days without new tariffs. Beijing matched that with its own delay. That gives both sides a bit more time to deal with other disputes—like Trump’s duties tied to fentanyl trafficking, Washington’s objections to China buying sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil, and complaints about American firms operating inside China.

Still, the steel surge is another stress point. Jeremy Chan, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said the focus should stay on trade, not tech or fentanyl. “Trade and tariffs — rather than tech or fentanyl — should be the focus, given Li-Greer pairing,” Jeremy said. He also noted that China sending Li shows they’re serious about progress. “It’s a bullish sign for a deal that will unlock a summit” between Trump and Xi Jinping, he added.

Trump himself confirmed interest in meeting Xi, saying Tuesday, “Probably during this year or shortly thereafter, we’ll go to China.” That lines up with Beijing’s own goals to reopen direct communication and try to reset the economic relationship, at least temporarily.

Earlier this year, China promoted Li to his new post. Before that, he had been China’s ambassador to the World Trade Organization, giving him long experience with international trade disputes. His meetings in D.C. could determine what happens next with the steel flood, and whether Beijing decides to rein it in or keep pushing metal out to keep its economy alive.

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