Gold edges lower as elevated oil prices bolster Fed hike prospects and offset soft USD
- Gold edges lower as the initial market reaction to Tuesday’s soft US consumer inflation fades.
- Elevated oil prices keep the door open for at least one Fed rate hike and weigh on the bullion.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions could support the safe-haven USD and favor the XAU/USD bears.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers after failing to find acceptance above the $4,100 mark the previous day, though it holds above the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Despite soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, investors remain worried about energy-driven inflation as escalating US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the price stability commitment in his first congressional testimony, leaving the door open for at least one rate hike by year's end. This, to a large extent, offsets modest US Dollar (USD) weakness and turns out to be a key factor exerting some pressure on the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% in June, representing the largest one-month decrease since April 2020 and missing expectations of a 0.1% fall. Furthermore, the core gauge, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was flat in June, compared to 0.3% consensus estimate. On a yearly basis, the headline and the core CPI decelerated to 3.5% and 2.6%, respectively, also missing forecasts. The data prompted traders to trim expectations of Fed rate hikes and dragged the USD to a nearly four-week low. The initial market reaction, however, faded quickly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress that the central bank had no tolerance for persistently high inflation, while also touting the strength of the US economy.
Moreover, the recent rise in crude oil prices to a nearly one-month high poses a direct inflation risk, backing the case for further tightening by the Fed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs, either in September or December. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the safe-haven buck. The US military launched another round of airstrikes against Iran, while Iran retaliated with attacks on US military assets in Gulf countries. Moreover, US President Donald Trump warned that the US would strike Iranian bridges and power plants unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's second day of congressional testimony, should influence the USD. Apart from this, the market focus will be on further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which might continue to infuse volatility in financial markets and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold remains vulnerable below 200-day SMA as descending channel remains in play
The XAU/USD pair holds within a downward parallel channel and well beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the broader tone capped despite the recent bounce. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive and is edging higher, hinting at improving but still constrained upside momentum as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingers around a neutral 40.80 level.
Hence, the top boundary of the channel near $4,140.69 might continue to act as the first meaningful barrier within the current structure. A sustained strength beyond the said hurdle is needed to ease the prevailing bearish bias. On the downside, the lower end of the descending channel around $3,718.03 offers the next key support, where a stronger reaction would be needed to suggest that sellers are losing control of the near-term trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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