Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $59.60 as US Dollar slumps ahead of US NFP data
- Silver price rises to near $59.65 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
- The Fed is highly anticipated to deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
- Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.9% higher to near $59.65 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal gains as the US Dollar (USD) slumps ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.4% to near 101.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.34% | -0.54% | -0.85% | -0.20% | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.54% | |
| EUR | 0.34% | -0.20% | -0.52% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.04% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.54% | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.30% | 0.38% | 0.24% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.85% | 0.52% | 0.30% | 0.62% | 0.68% | 0.50% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.62% | 0.04% | -0.09% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | -0.18% | -0.38% | -0.68% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.32% | -0.04% | -0.24% | -0.50% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.54% | 0.20% | -0.00% | -0.30% | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price an attractive bet for investors.
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The NFP report will likely show that employers hired 110K fresh workers, lower than 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see an almost 85% chance that the Fed will deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
On Wednesday, the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June missed expectations. The ADP report showed that the private sector created 98K fresh jobs, lower than the estimates of 113K. The Manufacturing PMI arrived lower at 53.3, while it was expected to remain steady at 54.0.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $59.65 in the European trade. However, the index is keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $63.74. The metal remains pressured by this overhead dynamic barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.24 stays just above oversold territory, hinting at lingering downside bias rather than a decisive recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $63.74, which needs to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustainable rebound. On the downside, the June 24 low at $55.63 is the immediate support; a downside move below that would expose the pair to the psychologcial level of $50.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 172K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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