Forex Today: US Dollar stays under pressure on last day of H1
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 30:
The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, continues to push lower on the last day of June after losing more than 1.5% in the previous week. The economic calendar will feature inflation data from Germany and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index from the US. Several policymakers from major central bankers will be delivering speeches throughout the day as well.
US Dollar PRICE This month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -3.07% | -1.61% | -0.13% | -1.04% | -1.43% | -1.78% | -3.04% | |
| EUR | 3.07% | 1.54% | 3.01% | 2.09% | 1.73% | 1.65% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 1.61% | -1.54% | 1.46% | 0.58% | 0.20% | -0.05% | -1.46% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | -3.01% | -1.46% | -0.91% | -1.21% | -1.51% | -2.85% | |
| CAD | 1.04% | -2.09% | -0.58% | 0.91% | -0.31% | -0.62% | -2.01% | |
| AUD | 1.43% | -1.73% | -0.20% | 1.21% | 0.31% | -0.07% | -1.66% | |
| NZD | 1.78% | -1.65% | 0.05% | 1.51% | 0.62% | 0.07% | -1.59% | |
| CHF | 3.04% | -0.03% | 1.46% | 2.85% | 2.01% | 1.66% | 1.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said over the weekend that the drop in the USD this year is normal variance, adding that the US still has a strong USD policy. Since the beginning of 2025, the USD Index is down about 12% and it was last seen trading at its weakest level since March 2022 at around 97.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures gain between 0.4% and 0.6% in the European morning on Monday, reflecting a risk-positive market atmosphere.
The UK government announced in a press release on Monday that the UK-US trade deal has officially come into force. UK car manufacturers can now export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff quota and the UK aerospace sector will have 10% tariffs on goods like engines and aircraft parts removed. Following the previous week's rally, GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and moves sideways slightly above 1.3700.
EUR/USD clings to small daily gains above 1.1700 in the European morning on Monday. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver an introductory speech at the opening reception and dinner of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.
USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades below 144.00 in the European session on Monday. Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Monday that he will continue working with the United States (US) to reach an agreement while defending national interest.
Following Friday's sharp decline, Gold started the week on the back foot and touched its weakest level since late May below $3,250 before staging a rebound toward $3,300.
Canada's Finance Ministry said in a statement early Monday that they will rescind digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US and noted that Canada's PM Mark Carney and President Donald Trump agreed that parties will resume negotiations to agree on a deal by July 21. USD/CAD edges slightly lower at the beginning of the week and trades at around 1.3660.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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