Australian Dollar eyes 0.70 as three-day rally meets Fed minutes

• AUD/USD gains 0.14%, extending its winning streak to three days.
• US trade deficit widens to record levels against Mexico.
• Bullock’s dovish guidance contrasts with expectations for another Fed hike.

The Australian Dollar extends its rally to three consecutive days, up 0.14% on Tuesday, as the US Dollar behaves erratically ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes on October 7. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6981, after hitting a low of 0.6961.

AUD/USD holds near 0.70 despite diverging RBA and Fed rate expectations

Wall Street ended Tuesday’s session in the green, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high. Oil prices edged lower, dragging the Greenback and US Treasury yields, even though France’s fiscal turmoil could trigger a reaction by fixed-income traders and push rates higher.

On the data front, the US trade deficit widened to $-105.6 billion in August, from $-92.8 billion in July, mostly due to a jump in crude oil imports, non-monetary Gold and capital goods. Looking into the data, the trade deficits widened against Mexico and Vietnam to record levels.

Other data showed that the ADP Employment Change 4-week average indicates the labour market is solid, at 23.75K, up from 22.5K. Ahead, market participants brace for the release of the FOMC’s last meeting minutes on October 7.

In Australia, the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads increased 2.2% MoM in September, pushing the series 12.5% higher over the year. On October 7, traders are eyeing the release of the University of Melbourne's Consumer Inflation Expectations for October.

Aside from this, expectations are that AUD/USD may continue to trend lower, as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock stated that she expects the bank's three rate increases could be enough to tame inflation. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates at least once towards the end of the year.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades around 0.6980, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) from the Moving Average Triple at roughly 0.7090. The pair has slipped away from the recent 0.72 handle, and momentum has cooled, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 37, which hints at persistent downside pressure rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Moving Average Triple SMA zone near 0.7090, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7198, while the longer-term downward trend line from 0.8015 stays well above as a broader cap. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the rising trend-line cluster around 0.6897, ahead of additional ascending trend-line floors near 0.6865 and 0.6833, with a deeper structural base emerging toward the 0.6673 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)