EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades below 1.1400, near two-month low ahead of Trump-Xi summit
- EUR/USD stabilizes after touching a nearly two-month low during the Asian session.
- The USD pauses for a breather ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, supporting spot prices.
- The bearish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The EUR/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day, hitting a fresh low since July 28 during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1380-1.1375 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as bears turn cautious ahead of a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) pauses for a breather following the previous day's strong move up to a nearly two-month high and lends some support to the EUR/USD pair. However, rising US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, along with geopolitical uncertainties, favor USD bulls. The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by political instability in Germany, which, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the currency pair remains to the downside.
The daily Relative Strength Index (14) has fallen to 25.47, signaling oversold conditions that could slow further downside but do not yet suggest a durable bottom for the EUR/USD pair. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits below zero with a negative reading near -0.0025, hinting at persistent bearish momentum despite some risk of short-term corrective rebounds, which run the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 1.1420 supply zone.
On the downside, the one-year low, around 1.1325, touched in June, could offer some support ahead of the 1.1300 mark, below which the EUR/USD pair could fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1244. Meanwhile, the oversold RSI reading and the negative MACD configuration could act as momentum-based supports rather than precise price floors. Moreover, traders would likely treat any recovery toward 1.1425 as an opportunity to reassess the strength of the broader downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD daily chart
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The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
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Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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