Forex Today: US Dollar extends rally on hawkish Fed repricing
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 15:
The US Dollar (USD) Index extends its rally and remains on track to post its largest weekly gain in two months as markets reassess the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature Industrial Production data for April and NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index for May.
Following the stronger-than-forecast consumer and producer inflation data earlier in the week, US Treasury bond yields rose sharply and boosted the USD. As of writing, the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield was sitting at its highest level in nearly a year above 4.5%, while the USD Index was up 1.3% for the week at 99.10. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 50% probability of the Fed raising the policy rate at least once by end-2026. In the meantime, US stock index futures lose between 0.4% and 1% on the day, reflecting a risk-averse market atmosphere.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.98% | 1.46% | 1.16% | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.40% | 0.97% | |
| EUR | -0.98% | 0.47% | 0.24% | -0.48% | -0.18% | 0.37% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -1.46% | -0.47% | -0.74% | -0.97% | -0.67% | -0.09% | -0.49% | |
| JPY | -1.16% | -0.24% | 0.74% | -0.70% | -0.35% | 0.23% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.51% | 0.48% | 0.97% | 0.70% | 0.39% | 0.94% | 0.46% | |
| AUD | -0.82% | 0.18% | 0.67% | 0.35% | -0.39% | 0.59% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | -1.40% | -0.37% | 0.09% | -0.23% | -0.94% | -0.59% | -0.43% | |
| CHF | -0.97% | 0.02% | 0.49% | 0.16% | -0.46% | -0.15% | 0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The data from the US showed on Thursday that Retail Sales increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis in April, matching analysts' estimate. Additionally, the US Department of Labor reported that there were 211K Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending May 9, an increase of 12K from the previous week.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and agreed that it's needed to support the free flow of energy. President Trump also said that they had struck "fantastic trade deals" and "settled a lot of different problems other people wouldn't have been able to solve."
EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure and trades at its weakest level since early April below 1.1650.
GBP/USD declines for the fourth consecutive day and loses about 2% for the week. In addition to the broad USD strength, the political drama in the UK further weighs on the pair.
USD/JPY holds its ground and trades near 158.50, its highest level since Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on April 30.
Gold (XAU/USD) declines sharply amid hawkish Fed repricing and trades well below $4,600, losing already 2% on the day.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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