USD/CAD steadies near 1.3800 as Oil prices climb on supply fears
- USD/CAD may rise as advancing Oil prices fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions.
- US–Venezuela tensions escalated after the US pursued another vessel near Venezuelan waters following tanker seizures.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
USD/CAD moves little after registering little gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3800 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair may come under pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from rising Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $57.00 per barrel at the time of writing, with prices advancing amid concerns over potential supply disruptions. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated after the US reportedly pursued another vessel near Venezuelan waters following the seizure of two Oil tankers this month.
Meanwhile, focus also remains on Eastern Europe, where Ukraine struck a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time, after earlier attacks on Lukoil facilities in the Caspian Sea. On Sunday, US and Ukrainian officials said talks in Miami were “productive and constructive,” though no breakthrough was announced.
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) could gain ground due to cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good position to pause and assess the effects of the 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index was revised downward to 52.9 in December from 53.3 previously. Consumer Expectations Index fell to 54.6 from 55.0. Meanwhile, One-year Inflation Expectations were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in both the initial estimate and the prior month.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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