EUR: Focus on the Ifo index – ING

One might have thought EUR/USD would be performing a little better given the global risk environment. A US-China trade truce would be welcome news for global trade, allowing for some nascent optimism in business sentiment to extend, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD to trade towards the 1.1650 area in quiet market

"This was evident on Friday in the surprise uptick in the eurozone PMIs and countered the emerging pessimism that economists had been drawn to over the summer."

"Today also sees the European Central Bank release its consumer inflation expectations survey. The three-year figure is expected to remain flat at 2.5% and feed into a very neutral ECB meeting this Thursday. The bigger debate is probably left until the December meeting when the 2028 CPI forecast is released. A number sub 2.05 would open the door for the doves."

"We're surprised EUR/USD is not a little higher this morning, but we still have a slight preference towards the 1.1650 area in quiet markets."