Chinese Yuan: Constructive appreciation bias into 2027 – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong maintain a constructive outlook on the Chinese Yuan, projecting USD/CNY at 6.62 by end-2026 and 6.46 by end-2027. Stronger PBoC fixings signal greater policy tolerance for Renminbi (RMB) strength, while resilience despite broader US Dollar (USD) gains and expectations of easing USD strength support a measured appreciation trajectory, albeit with risks from renewed USD rallies or softer domestic growth.

Policy-backed RMB strength path

"We maintain a constructive outlook on RMB, with USD/CNY projected at 6.62 at end-2026 and 6.46 at end-2027."

"The recent pattern of stronger PBoC fixings appears to suggest slightly greater policy tolerance for continued RMB appreciation, although we expect the pace to remain measured."

"RMB’s resilience despite broader USD strength also points to an increasingly constructive market bias towards appreciation, reinforcing expectations for further currency gains."

"We expect this appreciation trajectory to extend into 2027, supported by a gradual easing in USD strength, although periodic consolidation is likely."

"A renewed USD rally, softer domestic growth or a shift in the fixing trajectory could temper the pace of appreciation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)