Equities: Fed focus and energy shock – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen and colleagues note that the S&P 500 has retreated to a six‑week low as higher Oil prices and stagflation fears weigh on risk assets. They highlight that markets now price a 94% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with US economists at Deutsche Bank also expecting a move. The report stresses that the key issue will be Chair Warsh’s guidance and the updated dot plot.

Equities pressured by Fed expectations

"It’s been a familiar story for markets over the last 24 hours, with a fresh selloff as higher energy prices led to mounting fears about stagflation."

"That backdrop of rising energy prices and stagflation fears meant the pressure on risk assets continued yesterday. For instance, the S&P 500 (-0.45%) fell to a 6-week low, although there was a stabilisation in chip stocks after Monday's slump, with the Philly semiconductor index (+0.40%) rising slightly. Nevertheless, the decline was a broad-based one, with two-thirds of the S&P 500 lower on the day."

"A similar picture was clear in Europe as well, where the STOXX 600 (-0.28%) fell to a 3-month low. Now it’s worth noting this still leaves the S&P 500 within 3% of its record high, and the STOXX 600 less than 4% beneath its high, but there’s been a clear shift in momentum relative to early August."

"Overnight in Asia, we have seen markets begin to stabilise again ahead of the Fed's decision. In part, that's been helped by a pullback in oil prices, with Brent down -0.77% this morning to $107.91/bbl."

"So that's helped equities to advance, including the KOSPI (+1.16%), the Nikkei (+0.40%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%), CSI 300 (+0.60%) and the Hang Seng (+0.12%). Moreover, US equity futures are also pointing to a positive start, with S&P 500 futures up +0.22%, and the 10yr Treasury yield down -1.6bps at 4.99%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)