Iran announces an end to military operations against Israel
According to Fars News, Iran's armed forces have announced an end to military operations against Israel. However, they have warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. While there has been no confirmation from other media outlets.
The statement from Iran ending military attacks against Israel came after United States (US) President Donald Trump urged both Israel and Iran to stop attacking immediately.
Market reaction
US Dollar Index
There seems to be strong selling pressure in the US Dollar (USD), following Iran's announcement of a pause on attacks against Iran. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades 0.14% lower to near 99.90.
WTI Oil price
A sharp selling pressure is seen in Oil prices as Iran shows cooperation with US President Trump's urge to pause the war. In late European trade, the WTI Oil price has given up a majority of its early gains and has retreated to near $90 from the intraday high of $93.50.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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