When is the US Retail Sales data and how it could affect EUR/USD?
US Retail Sales data Overview
The United States (US) Retail Sales for August is due for release today at 12:30 GMT. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.2%, against a 0.5% increase seen in July. On the contrary, Retail Sales excluding autos is estimated to have risen by 0.4%, faster than the prior reading of 0.3%. Such a scenario indicates a slowdown in the auto demand.
The impact of the Retail Sales data remains significant on market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook as the measure of change in the data influences inflation at consumer and the producer level.
Rising households spending reflects a strong demand scenario in the economy, which drives consumer inflation higher and allows business owners to raise prices at factory gates. A scenario that forces Fed officials to adopt a hawkish stance on interest rates. Alternately, signs of a slowdown in the consumer spending allows the Fed to turn dovish on policy rates for boosting the households’ demand.
How could the US Retail Sales data affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD revisits its four-year high slightly above 1.1800 during the European trading session on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure. The US Dollar slumps amid firm expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
On the daily timeframe, EUR/USD stays above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1700, indicating a strong uptrend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00, signaling a fresh bullish momentum in the near term.
Looking up the round level figure of 1.1900 and the psychological level of 1.2000 will be key resistance areas for the major currency pair. On the downside, the September low around 1.1600 will be key support zone for the pair.
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.5%
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
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