CAD: Good time to buy the USD on dips – TDS

Tariff risk premia evaporates. Two talking points dominate client discussions — tariffs and positioning, TDS’ FX analysts Jayati Bharadwaj and Mark McCormick note.

Markets can remain long USD for an extended time

“Markets have been a bit too quick and optimistic in pricing out tariff premia in USD/CAD which seems premature. Tariffs are a means to an end, even if not the end itself. With Canada, the goal is to restructure USMCA where discussions have not even begun yet. Tariffs, even if bargaining chips, might need to be implemented for some period of time to bring Canada to the negotiating table.”

“Our in-house positioning model shows that the USD has gone from an extreme long to more neutral based on a 6m scale. Now seems to be a good time to buy the USD on dips, especially vs currencies where Trump risks are under-priced like CAD, EUR. Positioning, in itself, is no longer a strong argument to be a USD bear. In fact, we find that markets can remain long USD for an extended time (like during the trade war of 2018-2019).”

“We recently went long USD/CAD call spreads with 3m expiry. Our quant macro framework MRSI now assigns a large negative trading weight to CAD, driven by rates, growth, carry and equity (factors where the USD scores strongly). Poor fundamentals, a relatively weak macro story, rising trade uncertainty, and domestic political uncertainty restricting Canada's fiscal response to potential tariffs should ultimately push USD/CAD higher again.”