Dow Jones Industrial Average edges lower as Goldman drags, Crude Oil climbs back over $100

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped on Monday, weighed down by Goldman Sachs after disappointing fixed income results, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pushed into positive territory.
• Oil prices surged back above $100 per barrel after President Trump ordered a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend peace talks with Iran.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped more than 500 points overnight before a sharp recovery through the session, with markets showing increasing resilience to geopolitical headlines.
• Software stocks led the rally, with Oracle jumping 8% and Palantir gaining more than 3%, while Goldman Sachs fell 2.5% despite beating earnings estimates after a large miss in its fixed income unit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) edged lower on Monday, slipping around 50 points to trade near 47,900 after recovering from a much steeper drop at the open. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to trade above 6,800, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to push above 23,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had plunged more than 500 points in the overnight session after President Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but equities staged a notable intraday recovery as investors appeared to bet on an eventual resolution to the US-Iran standoff.

Hormuz blockade sends Oil back above $100

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil surged more than 5% to top $101 per barrel after Trump declared that the US Navy would blockade all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) clarified that the blockade would not impede vessels transiting the strait to non-Iranian ports. The announcement came after weekend negotiations in Islamabad collapsed, with Vice President JD Vance departing without a deal, citing Iran's unwillingness to halt its nuclear weapons program. The two sides appear far apart, with Iran also demanding control of the strait, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets. Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey will continue talks with both nations in the coming days, according to Axios. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is weighing a resumption of military strikes. Brent Crude jumped as much as 9% to trade near $102. The move reverses much of the relief rally that followed the April 7 ceasefire agreement, which had briefly pushed Oil prices back below $100. "Investors are now back to the drawing board trying to reassess the fair value of stocks now that it's clear that there is no end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East," said Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth.

Goldman Sachs weighs on the Dow

Goldman Sachs (GS) was the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday, falling 2.5% despite reporting first-quarter results that topped estimates on both the top and bottom line. Earnings per share came in at $17.55 versus the $16.49 consensus estimate, while revenue hit $17.23 billion against expectations of $16.97 billion. The standout was equities trading, which posted a record quarter at $5.33 billion in revenue, up 27% YoY. However, the bank's fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) division was a sore spot, with revenue dropping 10% YoY to $4.01 billion, missing StreetAccount estimates by roughly $900 million. The miss was attributed to weakness in interest rate products, mortgages, and credit. Bank of America called the overall results "solid" but "clouded by the FICC miss," while Wolfe Research described the quarter as "disappointing" despite lofty expectations, noting that higher commodities and foreign exchange trading were more than offset by weakness in rates, mortgages, and credit. Wells Fargo added that the FICC shortfall was "a little surprising relative to peer guidance and balance sheet growth." The result kicked off what is expected to be a busy week for bank earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America all set to report.

Software stocks lead the recovery

While financials dragged, technology and enterprise software names pushed the Nasdaq Composite higher. Oracle (ORCL) surged 8% to lead S&P 500 gainers after announcing new AI-powered utilities industry suite offerings. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) gained more than 3%, while ServiceNow (NOW) and Workday (WDAY) both rose more than 5%. Within the Dow, Salesforce (CRM) rose more than 3% on optimism around its artificial intelligence integration pipeline, Microsoft (MSFT) added around 1.6%, and IBM (IBM) gained roughly 1%. The sector rotation out of financials and into software was a defining feature of the session, helping the Nasdaq outperform despite the heavy geopolitical overhang. Semiconductor stocks broadly held gains from last week's rally, which had been fueled by strong results from TSMC and renewed AI capex commitments from major tech firms.

Existing home sales hit nine-month low

Existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in March, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Monday. The figure marked a 3.6% monthly decline and missed the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 4.05 million, coming in at the lowest level since June 2025. Mortgage rates climbed sharply through March, peaking at 6.64% for a 30-year loan before easing by roughly a quarter percentage point during the US-Iran ceasefire. The median home sales price rose 1.4% YoY to near $409K. The housing data adds to a growing pile of evidence that elevated borrowing costs are weighing on rate-sensitive parts of the economy, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it navigates between persistent inflation risks and softening demand.

Bond yields rise as inflation fears return

Treasury yields climbed on Monday as the resurgence in Oil prices reignited inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.34%, while the 30-year yield added 2 basis points to reach 4.93%. The moves come on the back of Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which had already revived higher inflation expectations. With Oil back above $100, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Fed may need to delay rate cuts further. The bond selloff adds another layer of pressure for equity valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors. Last week had been the strongest for all three major indexes since November, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.6%, the Nasdaq jumping 4.7%, and the Dow advancing 3%, so Monday's relatively contained pullback was viewed as a healthy pause given the escalation in geopolitical risk.

Looking ahead

The key data release this week is the March Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation update due on Tuesday, with consensus expecting a jump to 4.6% YoY from 3.4% previously, and 1.2% MoM versus 0.7% prior. Core PPI excluding food and energy is also expected to accelerate to 4.2% YoY from 3.9%. A hot PPI print, particularly on the heels of Friday's CPI data and the renewed surge in Oil prices, could further dampen rate cut expectations and weigh on risk sentiment. Thursday brings weekly Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 215K), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and March Industrial Production data. The week also features a heavy lineup of Fed speakers, including Goolsbee, Barr, Barkin, Collins, and Williams, along with the release of the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.

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