Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar weakens as risk flows lift major pairs
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.60 price region as markets digest the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which confirmed that inflation remains stubbornly elevated, largely driven by energy prices amid war in the Middle East. At the same time, headlines around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and fragile ceasefire conditions continue to drive Oil volatility and underpin safe-haven demand.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.30% | -0.26% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.21% | -0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.47% | 0.33% | 0.32% | 0.51% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | -0.04% | 0.45% | 0.31% | 0.29% | 0.47% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.47% | -0.45% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.44% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.33% | -0.31% | 0.13% | -0.03% | 0.15% | -0.30% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.32% | -0.29% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.18% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.21% | -0.51% | -0.47% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.46% | |
| CHF | 0.24% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.44% | 0.30% | 0.28% | 0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD surged toward the 1.1730s, offering a bullish bias for five consecutive days, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as traders fade the initial reaction to CPI. The pair benefits from narrowing rate differentials as markets price in a gradual easing cycle from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
GBP/USD pushes higher toward the 1.3470 area, extending gains amid the weaker USD, which provides breathing room. The British Pound remains supported despite lingering domestic concerns, with price action largely driven by USD dynamics.
USD/JPY remains elevated toward the 159.30 region due to rising US yields and a softer USD tone. The Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to gain modest support amid geopolitical uncertainty, which continues to limit a stronger rally.
AUD/USD trading is neutral near the 0.7080 region, strive for a fifth consecutive day of gains. The pair benefits from the weaker USD backdrop, though upside remains fragile amid fluctuating risk sentiment amid Middle East headlines.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains below the $100 mark, near $96.40 per barrel, and volatile, holding firm as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East uncertainty keep supply concerns alive. Higher Oil prices continue to feed into global inflation expectations.
Gold advances, now trading near $4,770, supported by a softer USD and persistent geopolitical risks. The metal gains traction as investors seek alternatives amid falling yields, although upside may be capped if risk sentiment stabilizes.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon:
Saturday, April 11:
- RBNZ’s Breman speech
Monday, April 13:
- ECB’s De Guindos speech
- Fed’s Miran speech
Tuesday, April 14:
- ECB’s Lane speech
- ECB’s Cipollone speech
- ECB’s Lane speech
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech
- Fed’s Goolsbee speech
- Fed’s Barr speech
- Fed’s Paulson speech
- BoE’s Greene speech
- ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech
Wednesday, April 15:
- Fed’s Barr speech
- ECB’s Cipollone speech
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
- Fed’s Bowman speech
- ECB’s Cipollone speech
- ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech
- ECB’s Schnabel speech
Thursday, April 16:
- ECB’s Lane speech
- Fed’s Williams speech
- ECB’s Lane speech
- Fed’s Miran speech
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- ECB’s Lane speech
- BoE’s Taylor speech
Friday, April 17:
- Fed’s Waller speech
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape:
Sunday, April 12:
- Business NZ PSI March
Monday, April 13:
- US IMF Meeting
- US Existing Home Sales Change March
- UK BRC Retail Sales March
Tuesday, April 14:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Westpac Consumer Confidence April
- CN Exports March
- CN Imports March
- CN Trade Balance March
- Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US March PPIs
Wednesday, April 15:
- US IMF Meeting
- France CPI March
- Eurozone Industrial Production February
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index April
- US Fed Beige Book
Thursday, April 16:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Employment Change March
- AU Unemployment Rate March
- CN GDP Q1
- CN Industrial Production March
- CN Retail Sales March
- UK GDP February
- UK Industrial Production February
- UK Manufacturing Production February
- Italian CPIs March
- Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April
- US Industrial Production March
Friday, April 17:
- US IMF Meeting
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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