Forex Today: US yields drop as labor cracks offset inflation
Here is what you need to know for Friday, April 10:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to the 98.80 price region after the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report confirmed that inflation remains sticky, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance. However, this was quickly overshadowed by a significant upside surprise in Initial Jobless Claims, which pointed to potential softening in the labor market. The combination of persistent inflation and weakening employment data created uncertainty around the Fed’s path, prompting a decline in US Treasury yields, which ultimately weighed on the Greenback.
At the same time, geopolitical headlines introduced a slightly more constructive tone. An Israeli official indicated that operations in Lebanon could be eased in the coming days due to US pressure, while Israel also signaled direct talks with Lebanon regarding Hezbollah disarmament. Despite these developments, the broader situation remains fragile, with military activity ongoing and risks still elevated across the region.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | -0.31% | 0.25% | -0.19% | -0.47% | -0.59% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.61% | 0.17% | -0.14% | -0.23% | 0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.31% | -0.04% | 0.56% | 0.13% | -0.19% | -0.28% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.61% | -0.56% | -0.45% | -0.73% | -0.86% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.45% | -0.27% | -0.40% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.47% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.73% | 0.27% | -0.09% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | 0.59% | 0.23% | 0.28% | 0.86% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.44% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.20% | -0.17% | 0.39% | -0.03% | -0.34% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD edged higher toward 1.1700, supported by the pullback in US yields and a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Still, gains remained contained as investors stayed cautious amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and uneven global growth prospects.
GBP/USD followed a similar path, recovering gradually near the 1.3430 region as the USD softened. The pair continues to trade largely as a function of broader market sentiment, with limited domestic catalysts driving price action.
USD/JPY lost bullish traction and hovered near the 159.00 region. The pair was particularly sensitive to the decline in US yields, which reduced the appeal of carry trades. While the Japanese Yen (JPY) did not surge aggressively due to still-fragile sentiment, it benefited enough to cap further upside in the pair.
AUD/USD moved modestly higher near 0.7080, supported by lower US yields and a slight improvement in risk appetite following the geopolitical headlines
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remained elevated but showed signs of stabilization as the prospect of easing Israeli operations in Lebanon tempered immediate supply fears, even as the broader Middle East conflict continues to underpin prices.
Gold held firm near $4,771, supported by lower US yields and a softer USD. The precious metal continues to benefit from both declining real yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining its appeal as a hedge.
What’s next in the docket:
Friday, April 10
- Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- Canadian Employment data
- US CPI
- US Factory Orders
- US Michigan Consumer Index’s
- US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
- US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
- US Monthly Budget Statement
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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