Dow Jones Futures fall as US government’s closure grips markets.
- US equity markets are expected to open wth losses amid the federal government's shutdown.
- Dow Jones futures trade 0.7% lower, near the 46,100 level during the European morning session.
- The focus today is on the ADP employment Report that is expected to show a mild increase in employment.
Dow Jones Index futures are trading lower on Wednesday, retreating to levels right above the 46.000 level, with investors wary of risk after the US federal government confirmed its shutdown earlier in the day.
Wall Street Indexes are set to open in the red on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Index futures trade 0.7% lower on the day, at 46,100, at the time of writing. The S&P 500 drops another 0.7%, to 6,635, while the Nasdaq futures fall nearly 1% to the 24,450 area.
The US federal government confirmed the worst expectations and closed earlier on Wednesday, as a last-minute vote in the Senate failed to bring the positions of Democrats and Republicans closer regarding the budget funding.
The shutdown is not expected to have a significant economic impact unless it is a protracted one, but is likely to keep investors on a cautious mode. The Labour and the Commerce Departments have already announced that they will halt their analysis, including Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, a key data point for the Fed’s rate-setting debate.
Some labour data, however, will be released this week. On Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings showed a slight increase to 7.22 million in August, from 7.20 million in July, although the lower hiring rate kept market concerns of a weakening labour market intact.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
The main focus today will be on the US ADP Employment report, which is expected too show a net increase of 50K private payrolls in September, down from 54K in August and less than half the average of beyond 100K seen last year and at the beginning of the current one.
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